Grand Final – ESC 2023 Live Notes

Hello Dear Readers,

Finally, the Grand Final of 2023 is upon us! Kalush Orchestra right out the gate – nice! Maybe we’ll finally see the winner’s reprise back at its proper place – opening the Grand Final. Hey! Andrew Lloyd Weber (composer and performer for UK 2009). Joss Stone? Why, she’s not ESC-related. Nor is this rapper.

Love the visualization of being united by a song – even British Royalty! Oh, here they are. Hurray for winners reprises! And a new song. Good for them, haha.

And the parade of countries.

GoA! (Ukraine 2020, 2021 – this is the 2021 song)

Jamala! (Ukraine 2016 – winner)

Tina Karol! (Ukraine 2006)

Verka Serduchka (Ukraine 2007 – one of the most popular ESC songs ever)

Finally – decent dresses for the hosts!

One final hurrah for Ireland as sole possessor of the top spot of ESC winners. And the formal announcement of Luxembourg’s return!

Twenty minutes in and we finally get the first song.

As a reminder, I predicted to Sweden to win on the back of a jury victory and strong televote, with France third and Finland fourth. Czechia and Belgium round out my pre-Contest top five prediction.

01 Austria – Who the Hell is Edgar? performed by TEYA & SALENA

Better than Thursday but still not nearly as fun or lively as expected. A song that suffered from a well-produced studio version that is not capable live. I expect this will be the lowest performing top ten betting odds country.

02 Portugal – Ai Coração performed by MimiCat

This is just as great if not better than Tuesday. Here comes the big note: Perfect! She did everything she can. I think it would be a victory to finish hig her than 20th given its draw and what it’s up against.

03 Switzerland – Watergun performed by Remo Forrer

I’ve been saying for months that this song should be taken seriously just to forsake it now. I can’t see this being able to withstand being performed third. I expect this will be 20th or below. At most, repeat last year’s high jury, no televote

04 Poland – Solo performed by BLANKA

I understand the appeal of this song. And the studio version is good. But her live vocals just leave so much to be desired. And she’s still not a great dancer.

05 Serbia – Same Mi Se Spava performed by Luke Black

His vocals are definitely more than a bit shaky. But he’s found his legs. His only hope is a big televote which I am not sure he can pull off. Likely low teens.

06 France – Évidemment performed by La Zarra

My predicted runner-up. It’s catchy and she’s gorgeous and the song is captivating even if it is lazily staged. I think she’s waiting for the big note to really turn it up. This is still only, like, 90%. Big note was fantastic! But that’s not enough to win. Heck, I’m not convinced she did enough to finish in the top five.

07 Cyprus – Break a Broken Heart performed by Andrew Lambrou

He sounds so much better than on Thursday. Still not good enough to impact the final scoreboard, but good enough to hold his own and finish mid-table.

08 Spain – Eaea performed by Blanca Paloma

She sounds perfect. The light show is mesmerizing. I think they set out everything they accomplished with this, except living up to betting odds expectations. This is just too niche to do anything higher than 14th or 15th.

Hooray for Junior ESC!

09 Sweden – Tattoo performed by Loreen

So far, it still feels like she’s holding back. What’s crazy is that this doesn’t feel like max power Loreen, yet this song feels inevitable. Is she sick? I think the door has been left open, just ajar.

10 Albania – Duje performed by Albina & The Kelmendi Family

This remains a pleasant song that will likely get polite votes, but anything above 18th would be unexpected.

11 Italy – Due Vite performed by Marco Mengoni

I still don’t understand his outfit. This is, though, the first time I’ve thought this song was superior to his 2013 one. He’s definitely turned up his performance from Tuesday.

12 Estonia – Bridges performed by ALIKA

This is, once again, beautifully performed. If she sounded like this last night, then she definitely could have done real, serious damage with the juries. I am still thinking this finishes 10th or so.

13 Finland – Cha Cha Cha performed by Käärijä

Loreen left the door open for Finland to win. It needs a flawless performance to gain a dominant enough televote to overcome its jury (presumed) jury vote. I don’t know, I don’t think that was enough – especially with major televote threats Norway and Israel yet to come.

14 Czechia – My Sister’s Crown performed by Vesna

I don’t know. This seems less good than it was on Tuesday. I was excited and moved by this earlier this week. Now, it just feels kinda meh.

15 Australia – Promise performed by Voyager

This is a live only song. Studio – meh, but live – it just works outstandingly well! It makes me actually kind of like the song. I expect jury support plus a moderate televote leads this to be yet another Top Ten finish for the Aussies.

16 Belgium – Because of You performed by Gustaph

An ode to 40-something gay men, no wonder this song is doing well. Of the ESC fanbase, a third are gay men, most of whom are of the 40-something variety. Yeah, I think this speaks to a key demographic and will likely end up Top Ten, despite its problematic nature.

I would rather the Eurovision greats just sing their ESC songs.

17 Armenia – Future Lover performed by Brunette

I love this song and think she is putting on another flawless performance. Still don’t see where the points for this song come from, but it deserves what it gets and more. I don’t think the dance break was necessary at all, but it only minimally takes away from the song.

18. Moldova – Soarele şi Luna performed by Pasha Parfeni

He sounds much better than Tuesday. I still don’t care much for this song, but it’s hard to deny that Moldova is popular among televoters, generally, and there’s no reason to suspect that this will be any different.

19. Ukraine – Heart of Steel performed by TVORCHI

Oh, even branding in the postcard. Good for them. This is better than their Thursday but still not very good. While this is still going to get sympathy votes, it’s no where as good or as well-performed as Stefania. I think this may struggle to get Top Ten.

20. Norway – Queen of the Kings performed by Alessandra

One of only a few countries I think that can stop Finland’s winning of the televote. Let’s see if she hits the big note. She got it! I think she may have just knocked Finland off the top of the televote. That was flawlessly performed and she worked the camera quite well.

21. Germany – Blood & Glitter performed by Lord of the Lost

This is not as high energy as I anticipated. Still – it stands out, it was well-performed and many stronger songs are long forgotten by this point. I think I need to move it back in to my top ten prediction.

22. Lithuania – Stay performed by Monika Linkytė

Probably my favorite song still alive in the competition. I’m still shocked it qualified. I don’t think it’s strong enough to get a lot of votes over stronger ballads that are better sung (Italy, Estonia). It’s just so earnest and honest. I love it.

23. Israel – Unicorn performed by Noa Kirel

A crap song saved by a stunning performance. Let’s see if she’s able to replicate it tonight. No. I wanna hear the song, not see you dance, haha. That was good. I think a bigger stadium reaction than at home reaction. I don’t think it has a bigger impact than Finland, Norway, or Germany.

24. Slovenia – Carpe Diem performed by Joker Out

That was as good as it gets, I think. Still not going to sniff the top ten, but it was a great effort. I think it will be one of Slovenia’s stronger finishes in recent history (already guaranteed by qualifying, haha)

25. Croatia – Mama ŠČ! performed by Let 3

That was better than Tuesday but I still think it will surprise the hardcore fans who are assuming it can win. I feel like it will fall flat, like, bottom 5 flat. I’m just not sure people will get the joke.

26. United Kingdom – I Wrote a Song performed by Mae Muller

She sounds a lot better than she did on Thursday. The rapping is so unnecessary and bad. Oh – they changed the big note to make it a bit more achievable. The UK should be proud but I’m not sure that was enough to come up to it’s expectations (currently eighth in the betting odds).

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Well, there you have it, 26 songs. One of which will be crowned the new winner. Based solely on tonight, what is my personal top ten?

10. Australia
9. Sweden
8. Portugal
7. Armenia
6. Slovenia
5. Norway
4. France
3. Estonia
2. Lithuania
1. Italy

But who do I predict will finish in the Top Ten?

I think this is surprisingly easy to an extent: Sweden, Finland, France, Australia, Germany, Norway, Italy, and Belgium.

The difficulty comes in predicting those last two. I think it should be at least one ballad, and I think, seriously, that goes between Lithuania and Estonia. I think, based on tonight’s performances, I still have to give the edge to Estonia. Lastly, I think the final spot comes down to a few captivating stagings and performances. Ultimately, despite myself, I think I have to guess that Israel did enough to make it into the top ten.

But, who do I think will win?

Sweden. I won’t mince my words. Sweden is by far the best whole package. I think it will easily win the jury vote and finish third in the televote. I don’t think either song finishing ahead of it in the televote (I would predict Finland and Norway) will finish top five in the jury. And I don’t think any major jury contender (Italy, Lithuania, France) will finish top five in the televote.

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Sam Ryder’s song was nice. And it’s always nice to see a past host and other legends of the Contest.

I wonder how they chose who would sing what song. Mahmoud (Italy 2019 (2nd), Italy 2022) singing Imagine is an interesting choice. Again, I would much prefer these people to just do their own ESC songs. But I guess it’s traditional for the host city to highlight itself. Netta (Israel 2018 – winner) singing Dead or Alive seems right. Daði Freyr (Iceland 2020, 2021) with an army of backing dancers, haha. Nice to have him here since he couldn’t sing live in 2021 due to COVID striking his band. Cornelia Jakobs (Sweden 2022) is a talent that should have blown up after Eurovision last year. And here she is seeing the hit of a former Spice Girl. The runner-up in 1993 that has since become a major gay anthem among British gay men of a certain age (the same ones voting for Belgium). Duncan Laurence (Netherlands 2019 – winner) is another person who should have had a career post-ESC but didn’t really get it going on a major scale.

Again, save the performances for the interval act. Go back to having a 15 minute voting window and fill that time with goofy videos and bad jokes. Then do all the big performances after we cast votes for our favorite songs. Don’t try to wash them out of our minds.

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My full prediction:

1. Sweden

2. France

3. Finland

4. Ukraine

5. Norway

6. Italy

7. Belgium

8. Australia

9. Israel

10. Germany

11. Slovenia

12. Poland

13. Czechia

14. Moldova

15. Croatia

16. Estonia

17. United Kingdom

18. Cyprus

19. Lithuania

20. Austria

21. Serbia

22. Armenia

23. Switzerland

24. Albania

25. Spain

26. Portugal

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Okay! Time for the jury results!

49% jury/51% televote, fyi, thanks to the Rest of the World televote this year.

As tradition holds, the previous host (or, in this case, the defending champion) goes first.

Ukraine – 12 to Sweden! Only 4 to UK

Italy – look at that, 10 for Ukraine. 12 to Israel!

Latvia – 12 to Estonia, no surprise there

Netherlands – not gonna lie, I assumed it would be 12 for Belgium not Sweden

Malta – 12 to Sweden, no surprise, nothing for UK, though.

Moldova – 12 to Sweden. Okay, starting to look strong for Tattoo but the night is early.

Ireland – only 2 to UK! 12 to Sweden

San Marino – 12 to Italy, No. surprise. there.

Azerbaijan – 12 to Israel. Not gonna lie, Israel is doing better than expected

Austria – 12 to Italy! Zero to Germany

France – 12 to Israel, that’s quite unexpected! Usually juries don’t go for the dance songs.

Finland – 12 points…to Sweden. Norway is struggling!

Belgium – only 1 for France!!! And 12 to Austria!

Germany – 12 to Sweden!

Germany and Croatia are the only ones with out any points thus far

Portugal – 12 to Australia! The Aussies do well with the juries.

Croatia – 12 to Italy! only a few for “friends” Slovenia and Serbia

Estonia – 12 points to Sweden. In case didn’t notice, Finland has quietly snuck up to fourth

Armenia – 12 to Israel! Israel, biggest beneficiaries of Russia being gone, haha

Poland – 12 more to Israel

Romania – 7 points to Moldova, 12 to Italy!

This host does realize that Loreen was the winning performer in 2012, right? And it was a dominant win?

Iceland – 4, 7, 10 for Norway, Sweden, and Finland, respectively. Another 12 for Israel? Nope – Australia!

Serbia – 12 points to Slovenia! One of the few 12 pointers in Slovenian ESC history

Cyprus – who gets their 12 points without Greece being around? Sweden!

Norway – 12 points to…Finland! Perhaps Cha Cha Cha has a better chance than anticipated.

Switzerland – 12 for Czechia! Not what I would have guessed but good on them

Oh! Germany has been rescued from nil points land.

Australia – 12 for Belgium!

Denmark – a Danish 12-pointer to Sweden, like so many times before

Spain – 12 points to Sweden!

Israel – 12 to Sweden, which now has 277 points

Sweden – helps second place Italy get to 148…. 12 points to Finland

Georgia – always unpredictable…12 to Belgium!

Czechia – 12 to Ukraine! Glad they got something, haha

Slovenia – 12 to Italy, unsurprisingly

Greece – Only 4 to Cyprus?!! Hence the big reaction from the audience. 12 to Belgium!

Albania – Adds to Sweden’s lead with another 12

Lithuania – 12 points to Sweden (Italy gets blanked! as Israel moves to just one point behind)

Final jury votes…

United Kingdom – only 10 for Australia…so 12 for Sweden? Yep!

Sweden has DOMINATED the juries, 163 more than second place(!) Israel. And 190 points more than Finland.

Here comes the televotes!

Germany: I’m expecting a good sized televote. Let’s see…15 points! Yikes

Croatia – 112 points, not too much, actually. Europe did not get the joke.

Poland – 81 points, sounds about right, haha

Serbia – 16 points, oof.

The UK – 9 points! That seems harsh

Albania – 59 points, okay

Moldova – 76 points, a little low, actually

Slovenia – only 45 points, awwwww

Portugal – only 16 points, sadly

Norway – 216! Wowzas!

France – 50 points, oof!

Ukraine – 189 points

Switzerland – only 31 points

Cyprus – 58 points

Armenia – 53 points

Lithuania – 46 points, ouch

Czechia – 35 points. That’s the Czechia we know and are disappointed by

Spain – 5 points — I knew Europe wouldn’t get it.

Austria – 16 points, anther big betting odds favorite disappointed

Belgium – 55 points

Australia – 21 points

Estonia – 22 points

Finland – 376 points!!! That was to be expected given just how few points had been awarded thus far.

Italy – 174 points, not bad

Israel’s turn

Israel – 185 points!

Sweden needs 186 to tie, 187 to win

Sweden – ….has received….243 points

Sweden now ties Ireland for most wins at 7.
Loreen now becomes only the second performing artist to be the performer for two different winners (Johnny Logan, Ireland 1980, 1987 being the other). Loreen was the singer for Euphoria back in 2012 and now wins again with Tattoo.
And, I was 8/10 for predicting the Top Ten (Sweden, Finland, Israel, Italy, Norway, Ukraine, Belgium, Australia).

Sweden was the appointed winner the moment Tattoo was announced as participating in Melfest. Its odds narrowed and lengthened, but it was always number one. Now, as ESC approached, other countries stood up to challenge. Tonight, there’s hope but never opportunity for any one else to win. Sure, Finland won the televote, but Sweden’s dominance among the juries was massive – one of the largest leads to date. Congratulations to Sweden, to Loreen, and the songwriters, composers, and producers of Tattoo – the song and the staging.

Thank you, dear readers, for joining me for another Eurovision Week! Come back in the following days for further anaylsis.

May 13, 2023 | Categories: Eurovision 2023 - Liverpool, Live Commentary on the Night | Tags: albania, armenia, australia, austria, belgium, croatia, cyprus, czechia, esc 2023, estonia, finland, france, germany, grand final, israel, italy, lithuania, live notes, moldova, norway, poland, portugal, serbia, slovenia, spain, sweden, switzerland, ukraine, united kingdom | Leave a comment