Posts tagged “lithuania

So, who would have won in 2020?

Graphic for the "Totally Definitive" winner of 2020

Graphic for the "Totally Definitive" winner of 2020

Hello Dear Readers!

Well, another Eurovision season is in the books. This one was unlike any other because of the historic cancellation of the 65th Edition of ESC. There have been an array of fan media sites and organizations across the internet holding mock competitions and polls in order to decide their own winner. Here on EO, we held the inaugural Eurovision Tournament this year, which was handily won by Iceland. While the Eurofandom will be arguing until the end of time about who would have won had 2020’s Contest occurred, EO hopes to draw its conclusion through combining some of the largest fan media polls of the 2020 Season. These are Eurostream, Eurovision Online, WiwiBloggs Fan Poll, Dziennik Eurowizyjny, ESC Plus, and the INFE fan poll, and – the biggest of them all – the OGAE fan poll (which allowed non-OGAE members to vote for the first time). These were chosen because: Eurostream and Eurovision Online are new, fan-driven pseudo-Contests that deserve attention and accolades, WiwiBloggs is (currently) the largest and most popular fan media website, Dziennik Eurowizyjny created the best video Contest, ESC Plus is one of the oldest and biggest fan media sites, and INFE & OGAE are the official confederation of fan clubs approved by the EBU. Let me be clear, Eurovision Obsession is not directly in partnership with any of these organizations/media outlets. Additionally, only three of the ten national broadcasters (not counting the RTVE poll from Spain) – those from Australia, Iceland, and San Marino – released a full list of the final ranking of all 41 songs. These rankings were compiled to provide an eighth ranking for this process.

Procedure

The results of each poll will be enumerated. For those that use semi-finals, the same thing most of us do for the real Contest will be done; the results of the two semi-finals will be combined to create the 27-41 rankings based on points earned and the specific media site’s tie-break procedures. Yes, this privileges the Netherlands and the Big Five, but that is how ESC is structured.

Once all eight 1-41 rankings are crafted, a composite 1-41 ranking will be crafted using each entry’s average placing (out to two decimal points). In the event of a tie, I will use the average percentage of points received as the tie-breaking variable. If the tie persists, then the countries’ performance in the EO Eurovision Tournament will be used. If the tie persists, then the two entries will just be considered tied. So, let’s look at the detailed results of each of our eight polls (which, again, are completely unaffiliated with ESC Obsession and have not provided any endorsement to this blog).

  • EuroStream 2020 logo

    Eurostream 2020

    • Date: 9 May

    • Total number of points: 95,058

    • Voting Structure: Televote: individuals could vote in both semi-finals and the final; individuals can vote for 1-5 entries per vote. Jury: a selection of ESC stars, music professionals, and former ESC jurors from 38 of the participating countries; jury panels ranged from 1-4 members. Countries without juries Russia, Israel, and Latvia) were given a composite score from a selection of their neighbors.

    • Final Ranking: 50/50 Jury and Televote; jury points are totaled. The jury total provided the number of points available for the public. The televotes were totaled, converted to percentages, then the percentage was used to calculate points to be awarded.

      EuroStram Winner Graphic Iceland

      Copyright EuroStream 2020

  • Winner: Iceland (9.12% of vote)

    02. Lithuania (6.31%)

    22. Australia (1.70%)

    03. Russia (6.01%)

    23. Serbia (1.49%)

    04. Sweden (5.89%)

    24. Armenia (1.47%)

    05. Belgium (5.84%)

    25. Israel (1.41%)

    06. Malta (5.72%)

    26. Albania (1.32%)

    07. Switzerland (5.59%)

    27. Estonia (4.19%)

    08. Italy (5.55%)

    28. Poland (4.11%)

    09. Bulgaria (5.38%)

    29. Finland (3.82%)

    10. Georgia (4.25%)

    30. Latvia (3.69%)

    11. Azerbaijan (4.25%)

    31. Ireland (3.58%)

    12. Germany (3.89%)

    32. Ukraine (3.49%)

    13. Netherlands (3.70%)

    33. Czech Republic (3.33%)

    14. Romania (3.51%)

    34. Cyprus (3.23%)

    15. Norway (3.28%)

    35. San Marino (2.96%)

    16. France (3.07%)

    36. Moldova (1.89%)

    17. Greece (2.99%)

    37. Portugal (1.60%)

    18. Denmark (2.48%)

    38. Croatia (1.55%)

    19. Austria (2.00%)

    39. North Macedonia (1.51%)

    20. United Kingdom (1.98%)

    40. Belarus (1.25%)

    21. Spain (1.81%)

    41. Slovenia (1.21%)

  • Eurovision Online logoEurovision Online 2020

    • Date: 16 May

    • Total number of points: 9,512

    • Voting Structure: Jury – 41 jurors voted via traditional ESC points to name their top ten. They were separated into their respective semi-finals, and then all 41 were used for the jury votes in the Final. Televote – Collected by country. When this failed, the results from at-large voting were employed. See their explainer (linked on “Voting Structure”) for a full explanation from Eurovision Online.

    • Final Ranking: Combination of jury scores and televote scores at a 50/50 ratio.

Eurovision Online's Bulgaria graphic

Copyright Eurovision Online

  • Winner: Bulgaria (10.87%)

    2

    Iceland

    10.51%

    22

    Slovenia

    1.47%

    3

    Sweden

    9.59%

    23

    United Kingdom

    0.80%

    4

    Italy

    5.93%

    24

    France

    0.76%

    5

    Lithuania

    5.70%

    25

    Greece

    0.40%

    6

    Russia

    5.45%

    26

    Spain

    0.38%

    7

    Switzerland

    5.34%

    27

    Serbia

    4.56%

    8

    Ireland

    4.84%

    28

    Romania

    4.31%

    9

    Malta

    4.81%

    29

    Azerbaijan

    3.97%

    10

    San Marino

    3.99%

    30

    Belgium

    3.15%

    11

    Germany

    3.83%

    31

    Belarus

    2.84%

    12

    Ukraine

    3.60%

    32

    Georgia

    2.67%

    13

    Norway

    3.15%

    33

    North Macedonia

    2.72%

    14

    Armenia

    2.71%

    34

    Finland

    2.46%

    15

    Denmark

    2.69%

    35

    Portugal

    2.09%

    16

    Austria

    2.69%

    36

    Croatia

    1.94%

    17

    Israel

    2.61%

    37

    Cyprus

    1.94%

    18

    The Netherlands

    2.44%

    38

    Estonia

    1.72%

    19

    Australia

    2.14%

    39

    Poland

    1.68%

    20

    Albania

    1.77%

    40

    Czech Republic

    1.31%

    21

    Latvia

    1.53%

    41

    Moldova

    0.70%

  • Wiwibloggs LogoWiwiBloggs Fan Poll

    • Date: 16 May

    • Total number of votes: 35,644

    • Voting Structure: Open public vote

    • Final Ranking: Summation of votes cast

Swiss flag map

Winner: Switzerland (14.90%)

2

Italy

11.93%

22

Latvia

1.19%

3

Serbia

8.78%

23

Albania

1.14%

4

Greece

6.02%

24

Spain

1.01%

5

Lithuania

5.96%

25

United Kingdom

0.95%

6

Iceland

4.69%

26

Ireland

0.94%

7

Bulgaria

3.52%

27

Belgium

0.85%

8

Malta

3.40%

28

Poland

0.80%

9

Russia

3.26%

29

Croatia

0.75%

10

Norway

2.58%

30

Cyprus

0.75%

11

Ukraine

2.46%

31

Portugal

0.60%

12

Romania

2.36%

32

France

0.57%

13

Germany

2.31%

33

Austria

0.56%

14

Azerbaijan

2.26%

34

Czech Republic

0.54%

15

Israel

2.11%

35

North Macedonia

0.46%

16

Georgia

1.92%

36

Slovenia

0.45%

17

Armenia

1.90%

37

San Marino

0.45%

18

Sweden

1.85%

38

Belarus

0.45%

19

The Netherlands

1.62%

39

Finland

0.42%

20

Australia

1.46%

40

Estonia

0.33%

21

Denmark

1.21%

41

Moldova

0.28%

  • ESC Plus Poll logoESC Plus

    • Date: 16 May

    • Total number of points: 2375

    • Voting Structure: Open public vote

    • Final Ranking: The raw votes were converted using a proprietary algorithm into the “final classification.”

Screen capture of Lithuania from ESCPlus video

  • Winner: Lithuania (8.59%)

    2

    Switzerland

    6.61%

    22

    Albania

    1.77%

    3

    Iceland

    5.60%

    23

    Armenia

    1.68%

    4

    Bulgaria

    5.56%

    24

    France

    1.52%

    5

    Malta

    4.51%

    25

    Ireland

    1.52%

    6

    Norway

    4.51%

    26

    Latvia

    1.43%

    7

    Italy

    4.25%

    27

    The Netherlands

    1.26%

    8

    Azerbaijan

    4.25%

    28

    Poland

    1.14%

    9

    Russia

    3.92%

    29

    Georgia

    0.97%

    10

    Germany

    3.83%

    30

    Portugal

    0.97%

    11

    Sweden

    3.45%

    31

    North Macedonia

    0.97%

    12

    Romania

    2.99%

    32

    Cyprus

    0.93%

    13

    Australia

    2.82%

    33

    Croatia

    0.93%

    14

    Greece

    2.78%

    34

    San Marino

    0.88%

    15

    Israel

    2.69%

    35

    Austria

    0.88%

    16

    Ukraine

    2.61%

    36

    Moldova

    0.84%

    17

    United Kingdom

    2.15%

    37

    Estonia

    0.80%

    18

    Serbia

    2.11%

    38

    Belarus

    0.67%

    19

    Spain

    2.06%

    39

    Czech Republic

    0.59%

    20

    Denmark

    2.02%

    40

    Slovenia

    0.55%

    21

    Belgium

    1.94%

    41

    Finland

    0.46%

  • Logo for Dziennik EurowizyjnyDziennik Eurowizyjny

    • Date: 9 May

    • Total number of points: 9513 points across three shows

    • Voting Structure: Televote: individuals could vote in both semi-finals and the final. Jury: a selection of ESC fans and stars from the participating countries

    • Final Ranking: 50/50 Jury and Televote; jury points are totaled. The jury total provided the number of points available for the public. The televotes were totaled, converted to percentages, then the percentage was used to calculate points to be awarded.

DZ Eu Online WInner - Switzerland

Copyright Dziennik Eurowizyjny

  • Winner: Switzerland (12.09%)

    2

    Lithuania

    11.65%

    22

    United Kingdom

    0.46%

    3

    Bulgaria

    10.89%

    23

    Albania

    0.21%

    4

    Norway

    8.52%

    24

    Spain

    0.19%

    5

    Malta

    7.95%

    25

    France

    0.17%

    6

    Azerbaijan

    6.14%

    26

    The Netherlands

    0.08%

    7

    Iceland

    5.78%

    27

    Austria

    3.45%

    8

    Germany

    5.51%

    28

    Finland

    2.54%

    9

    Russia

    5.17%

    29

    Czech Republic

    2.30%

    10

    Sweden

    4.58%

    30

    Belgium

    2.28%

    11

    Ukraine

    3.93%

    31

    Portugal

    2.05%

    12

    Romania

    3.36%

    32

    Ireland

    1.94%

    13

    Israel

    2.23%

    33

    Georgia

    1.89%

    14

    Italy

    2.14%

    34

    Cyprus

    1.72%

    15

    Greece

    1.98%

    35

    Croatia

    1.03%

    16

    Serbia

    1.53%

    36

    North Macedonia

    0.99%

    17

    Denmark

    1.49%

    37

    Estonia

    0.94%

    18

    Australia

    1.39%

    38

    San Marino

    0.78%

    19

    Latvia

    0.93%

    39

    Slovenia

    0.78%

    20

    Armenia

    0.84%

    40

    Moldova

    0.74%

    21

    Poland

    0.78%

    41

    Belarus

    0.52%

  • INFE Poll 2020 logoINFE Poll 2020

    • Date: 12 May

    • Total number of points: 1262 points from 22 INFE Member Groups

    • Voting Structure: Each of the 22 INFE member groups submitted points in classic Eurovision style (points 12, 10, 8-1) to a total of ten entries.

    • Final Ranking: Simple summation of all points distributed

lithuanian flag map

  • Winner: Lithuania (14.74%)

    2.

    Switzerland

    10.54%

    22.

    Australia

    0.87%

    3.

    Italy

    7.69%

    23.

    Slovenia

    0.79%

    4.

    Iceland

    7.37%

    24.

    Greece

    0.79%

    5.

    Russia

    7.37%

    25.

    Albania

    0.79%

    6.

    Bulgaria

    6.66%

    26.

    Belgium

    0.55%

    7.

    Norway

    6.42%

    27.

    United Kingdom

    0.55%

    8.

    Malta

    4.75%

    28.

    Poland

    0.40%

    9.

    Sweden

    4.52%

    29.

    The Netherlands

    0.24%

    10.

    Azerbaijan

    4.44%

    30.

    Georgia

    0.24%

    11.

    Ukraine

    3.80%

    31.

    Czech Republic

    0.24%

    12.

    Germany

    3.17%

    32.

    N. Macedonia

    0.16%

    13.

    Romania

    2.06%

    33.

    Croatia

    0.16%

    14.

    Armenia

    1.98%

    34.

    Austria

    0.08%

    15.

    Serbia

    1.74%

    35.

    Portugal

    0.00%

    16.

    Cyprus

    1.35%

    35.

    Belarus

    0.00%

    17.

    Latvia

    1.58%

    35.

    Estonia

    0.00%

    18.

    Israel

    1.03%

    35.

    San Marino

    0.00%

    19.

    Ireland

    1.03%

    35.

    Finland

    0.00%

    20.

    Spain

    0.95%

    35.

    Moldova

    0.00%

    21.

    France

    0.95%

    35.

    Denmark

    0.00%

  • OGAE Fan Poll 2020 logoOGAE 2020 Fan Contest

    • Date: 16 May

    • Total number of points: 4989

    • Voting Structure: Each of the 45 member clubs submitted points in classic Eurovision style (points 12, 10, 8-1) to a total of ten entries. These votes constitute a pseudo-jury vote. The televote is comprised from non-OGAE members, who could vote for the first time this year. These votes were collated and countries were ranked from 1 – 41. Points were distributed via taking the same amount of points distributed by the OGAE fan clubs and divvying them up based on percentage of votes received.

    • Final Ranking: OGAE club votes combined with at-large voting at a 50/50 ratio.

lithuanian flag map

  • Winner: Lithuania (15.43%)

    2

    Iceland

    12.71%

    22

    Albania**

    0.42%

    3

    Switzerland

    12.43%

    23

    Belgium**

    0.42%

    4

    Bulgaria

    8.04%

    24

    Ireland^

    0.42%

    5

    Italy

    7.62%

    25

    The Netherlands^

    0.42%

    6

    Norway

    5.93%

    26

    Croatia

    0.40%

    7

    Germany

    5.79%

    27

    Spain

    0.38%

    8

    Russia

    5.23%

    28

    Estonia

    0.30%

    9

    Malta

    4.91%

    29

    Cyprus

    0.28%

    10

    Sweden

    3.79%

    30

    Poland

    0.22%

    11

    Azerbaijan

    3.59%

    31

    Georgia

    0.16%

    12

    Ukraine

    1.96%

    32

    Austria+

    0.14%

    13

    Serbia

    1.78%

    33

    Moldova+

    0.14%

    14

    Romania

    1.14%

    34

    San Marino+

    0.14%

    15

    Israel

    0.98%

    35

    United Kingdom

    0.10%

    16

    Latvia

    0.90%

    36

    North Macedonia#

    0.08%

    17

    Australia

    0.78%

    37

    Portugal#

    0.08%

    18

    Greece

    0.72%

    38

    Finland#

    0.08%

    19

    Denmark

    0.68%

    39

    Slovenia#

    0.08%

    20

    Armenia*

    0.64%

    40

    Belarus

    0.02%

    21

    France*

    0.64%

    41

    Czech Republic

    0.00%

    *Armenia had a higher OGAE televote than France

    **Albania had more wins in the EO Tournament

    ^Ireland had a higher OGAE televote than the Netherlands

    +San Marino had the fewest OGAE televotes, Austria had more wins than Moldova in the EO Tournament

    #First tie-break, Finland & Slovenia had fewer wins in the EO Tournament, Finland had the higher vote percentage in the EO Tournament. North Macedonia had higher vote percentage than Portugal in the EO Tournament

  • TV Broadcasters

    • Date: 17 May

    • Total number of votes: 3 broadcasters: SBS (Australia), RÚV (Iceland), SMRTV (San Marino)

    • Voting Structure: While the linked Eurovision World article uses all ten broadcasters’ top ten lists to determine who would have won, EO required a ranking of all 41 countries in order to include it in this calculation. All three rankings were averaged for each country (or two rankings for Australia, Iceland, and San Marino).

    • Final Ranking: The final averaged rankings were used to compile the songs from 1 to 41. Average ranking is given in the table below.

  • lithuanian flag map

    Winner: Lithuania (2.67)

    2

    Russia

    3.00

    22

    Serbia

    22.00

    3

    Iceland

    3.50

    23

    Belgium

    22.33

    4

    Italy

    4.00

    24

    San Marino

    22.50

    5

    Bulgaria

    5.00

    25

    France

    23.67

    6

    Switzerland

    5.33

    26

    Austria

    25.33

    7

    Norway

    9.67

    27

    Cyprus

    26.00

    8

    Sweden

    9.67

    28

    Latvia

    26.33

    9

    Malta

    10.00

    29

    Armenia

    26.67

    10

    Germany

    10.33

    29

    Ireland

    26.67

    11

    Azerbaijan

    10.67

    31

    North Macedonia

    29.00

    12

    Denmark

    13.67

    32

    Finland

    29.67

    13

    Romania

    14.00

    33

    Georgia

    30.00

    14

    The Netherlands

    15.00

    34

    Croatia

    31.67

    15

    Ukraine

    17.00

    35

    Moldova

    32.33

    16

    United Kingdom

    17.33

    36

    Australia

    33.00

    17

    Israel

    18.00

    37

    Estonia

    33.33

    18

    Greece

    18.33

    38

    Slovenia

    34.00

    19

    Spain

    19.33

    39

    Czech Republic

    34.33

    20

    Albania

    21.33

    40

    Belarus

    34.67

    21

    Poland

    21.67

    41

    Portugal

    35.00

Final Ranking

41. Belarus
40. Moldova
39. Czech Republic
38. Estonia
37. Finland
36. Slovenia
35. Portugal
34. North Macedonia
33. Croatia
32. San Marino
31. Cyprus
30. Poland
29. Austria
28. Georgia
27. Ireland
26. France
25. United Kingdom
24. Belgium
23. Albania
22. Spain
21. Latvia
20. The Netherlands
19. Australia
18. Denmark
17. Armenia
16. Serbia
15. Greece
14. Israel
13. Ukraine
12. Romania
11. Azerbaijan

And our TOP TEN is:

10. Germany
9. Sweden
8. Norway
7. Malta
6. Russia
5. Italy
4. Bulgaria
3. Switzerland
2. Iceland

And our winner is:

1. LITHUANIA

Final Thoughts

Well, there you have it, seven major polls plus three broadcasters reveal that it is quite likely that LITHUANIA would have won (for the first time) had Eurovision 2020 been held. This would have toppled betting odds favorite, Bulgaria and relegated Iceland to the runner-up position yet again. Do I think this is accurate? Well, I think it is the best I can do to find a legitimate prediction. Of course, the majority of voters are not the same mega-fans that would have been voting in these polls and viewing these alternative programming. The broadcasters’ ranking may be the closest we get to representing the general public’s view and there’s evidence that, had all ten been incorporated, Iceland would be the broadcast favorite. So, what do I think all this means? Lithuania and Iceland were legitimate contenders. Bulgaria and Switzerland, while strong entries, would likely needed to have relied upon world-stopping performances in order to seriously contend for victory. Additionally, fan favorites Latvia and San Marino under-performed whereas fan scourges Norway and (to an extent) France over-performed.

Meanwhile, my personal Top Ten is:

10. Austria

9. Latvia

8. Russia

7. Albania

6. Australia

5. Russia

4. Iceland

3. Poland

2. Malta

1. Switzerland

I think 2020 would not have been an earth-shattering Contest, resulting in only a few classics (Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Russia) while being considered mostly forgettable by most, much like 2006 or 2017. It breaks my heart that Bulgaria, Iceland, Lithuania, and Malta all had top ten betting odds to win – which would have been a first for each country. Throw in Switzerland which would have gotten its first back-to-back Top Ten finishes since 1981-1982. But, hopefully, this means that these (and other) countries will more seriously take into consideration the fact that they have a legitimate chance of winning against the likes of juggernauts like Russia and Sweden. I look forward to a lifetime of debate over who would have won, but hope that this article can provide guidance to folks in debate.


Eurovision Song… Celebration – Part One!

Hello Dear Readers!

In addition to Saturday’s Europe Shine a Light that will be celebrating the Contest, the EBU has put together Eurovision Song Celebration to specifically celebrate the 41 entries from this year. Tonight (Tuesday, 12 May – the date the first semi-final was supposed to happen) were the 17 songs of the first semi-final and the three automatic qualifiers who were going to vote (Germany, Italy, The Netherlands). The video is below. Beneath of that, I have crafted live notes for y’all! Enjoy and see you Thursday!

Eurovision Song Celebration 2020 – Part One (instead of Semi-Final One)

I guess I never did get the chance to review each song. So, I’ll do that here.

Swedish flag mapSweden This sounds like it was written by somebody who learned about American soul music and gospel through reading books. It hits all the right beats, and they’re voices and choreography are on point, but this song just feels kinda empty, yet still has that smugness we all associate with Swedish entries. Clearly, this would have qualified easily.

Belarus A deeply underrated song dragged down because the performers are clearly having a very good time but not in “a cool way” so folks overlook it. Personally, I think this could have shocked us all by qualifying (much like Belarus did last year).

Australia SBS is one of the two broadcasters (NDR – Germany – being the other) that promised to reveal what the ESC staging would have looked like. I look forward to that as the national final staging was good for Australia, but would need to be stronger and clown-free for the ESC stage. Love this song otherwise; I’m a big fan of indie music and this perfectly captures where that genre is in contemporary times. I think Oz would have continued its 100% qualification streak.

North Macedonia The fandom is comparing this song to Dance Alone (N Mak 2017), a song with a lot of love and hype but fell flat in Kyiv. Do I think North Macedonia learned its lesson that an average dance song requires a staging that matches its energy? Yes. Do I think it would be enough to qualify? Naw.

Slovenia While this song has grown on me over the course of the Eurovision season, it is still overwhelmingly dull. By far, the weakest entry this year. Which is a shame because her voice is stunning. Hopefully, things will be better next year.

LOVE genre changing. Is it me or are the Russian, Belarussian, and Croatian remixes bops? It’s probably just my Americanism showing, but bluegrass is nice.

lithuanian flag map

Lithuania Perhaps this year’s most overrated entry. Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s an inventive, intriguing song. And I like the message that being in one’s 30s doesn’t make one over the hill. I just do not quite understand the craze around this entry – is it just because of the dance?

Ireland Since this song was meant to be a Pride anthem, I’m going to use this opportunity to be catty. OMG a song about being *unique* and *individualized* done in the most cookie-cutter of approaches. Instead of singing about so-called authenticity, just be authentic! This would have finished 11th or 12th in the semi-final.

Russia The first time I saw this, I was already angry that it took so long for Channel One to release the song. And then I watched the music video. My jaw dropped – what is this madness?! Now, okay, I do love this song. So infectious; a gimmicky entry that doesn’t take itself seriously. Definitely would have qualified.

flag map of belgiumBelgium That gave me a bit of whiplash, are there two entries more different this year than Russia and Belgium? I also grew into loving this entry. It’s so mournful and passionate and slowly builds over time. It would have qualified on the backs of the juries.

Malta This gets right everything Sweden gets wrong. It’s contemporary soul-pop. Destiny has one of the most soulful voices I’ve ever heard this side of the Atlantic. Not to mention maintains the inspirational message that is generalizable for everyone, not just those in relationships. I think this song is clearly about finding one’s faith, but it is vague enough to get past the EBU censors. Can’t wait to see Destiny become the first JESC champion to win the adult version. It may not have been with this song, but she will be! All of My Love would also be a shoo-in for the Grand Final.

Croatia Hmm, this song is quite pleasant but not very remarkable. The club mix from earlier would have given this a much better chance at making an impact. Again, I don’t dislike the song, it’s just kinda – meh. Would not have qualified.

Azerbaijan For all the attention and love this song has been getting, I’m not sure it is as strong as it seems. It wouldn’t be the first Azerbaijani entry to have the love of the fandom and failed to qualify. Not saying it would, I think this would make the Final, but I don’t think it is as strong as people think it is. Still waiting for the Senhit demo to appear online.

Cyprus Our second American! With that said, this is a bit of a tedious track. I think it was aiming for that 90s trance-pop sound, but did not go far enough. So, it just has a dated sound that makes it melt into the background. Would have been left behind in the semis.

Norway A strong contender for the winner of the juries. It is a deeply impactful song that is well-sung with a memorable staging effect. I think it is a standard ballad, but is elevated by Ulrikke’s performance.

Israel Love that we get a new language added to the Eurovision family – Amharic. This song is so much fun and can put a smile on anyone’s face. Alene is also a captivating performer. I think it would have qualified.romanian flag map

Romania Not quite sure why Bulgaria is getting all the love while Romania is being mostly ignored. I like this because I like the contemporary sound and it is fun to sing along to. Though, I do hate the term “fake news” – that is likely due to my country’s current political situation. Likely would have qualified.

Ukraine Love folk infused contemporary entries. You can dance to this. You can sing along to it. You can just listen in awe. I wonder, though, if it has enough wide appeal to get it through. Poland tried an entry like this last year and landed just shy of qualifying, I feel like this could have done the same – breaking Ukraine’s 100% qualification streak.

Italy Another quintessentially Italian song from Italy. Is this song captivating? Yes. Are the lyrics describing the fact that one’s hometown will always be in your heart regardless of where you go relatable and painfully relevant? Yes. Is the composition radio-ready and stirring? Yes. Will this have been yet another Top Ten finish for Italy? Yes. Does this song excite or interest me? Not really.

Dutch Flag MapGermany Germany really swung for the fences with this c. 2010s club thumper. It is so much fun to sing and dance too, but a bit too dated to achieve the results that NDR was hoping for. I think it would have finished mid-table in the Grand Final.

The Netherlands Another strong ballad that would have challenged the likes of Italy and Norway for the top spot of the juries. I hate the way how this song abruptly ends. I do think, though, that the televote would have dragged it down to around 11~13th place.

 

I love the fan recap! Probably for the best that we don’t have to hear them sing, though that would be fun.

What a fun show!

 

Looking back, if this were a competitive event, I would predict the following qualifiers:

  • Sweden

  • Belarus

  • Australia

  • Lithuania

  • Russia

  • Belgium

  • Malta

  • Norway

  • Israel

  • Romania

My instincts are telling me that Azerbaijan and Ukraine would both progress at the expense of Belarus and Belgium. HOWEVER, every year there are always a few shock qualifiers for each semi-final, why would 2020 have been any different.

Of these 20 songs, what are my personal top ten?

  1. Malta

  2. Russia

  3. The Netherlands

  4. Australia

  5. Belgium

  6. Romania

  7. Germany

  8. Israel

  9. Norway

  10. Ukraine


Eurovision 2019 – Live Notes: Second Semi-Final

Hello Dear Readers!

Times for the Second Semi-Final and to select the final ten qualifiers for the Grand Final! Eighteen countries compete, these plus Germany, Italy, and UK vote, and we get ten more songs for Saturday.

As a reminder, here is my pre-show prediction of qualifiers:

  • The Netherlands

  • North Macedonia

  • Azerbaijan

  • Russia

  • Sweden

  • Malta

  • Albania

  • Denmark

  • Armenia

  • Switzerland

These will likely change after hearing and seeing the songs live tonight. So, let’s go!

No interval tonight. Just too many hosts, none of whom are all that interesting unfortunately.

Armenia: I like her look and I think she sounds great! While the overall staging and camera work are good, I think she looks and sounds small, like the space is owning her and not the other way around. Nice pyro effect. OH! She botched that big note. Let’s hope it’s not in the recap. Though, I do not think it is enough to stop her from qualifying.

Ireland: I love her outfit! She sounds super mousy. Is that purposeful? Love the retro look and feel of this staging. She has zero energy, though. I think she’s perhaps too focused on hitting all of her cues and not just singing the song. Some nice shots of Irish fans going wild. Aside from her lack of energy, I think this is as good as it could have been.

Moldova: Oh!! Sand art, we haven’t seen that since Ukraine 2011. As much as I enjoy this song, I don’t know if that gimmick is enough to move this song through. I am LOVING this sand artist and her effects, especially those footsteps. And I love their outfits; they look beautiful. Is it enough? Not sure, we’ll see.

Switzerland: WHOA! Absolutely love this camera work. This staging is perfect. The singing is amazing – both Luca and his backing singer should be very proud of themselves. This is the first song thus far (including Tuesday) that I can feasibly see winning. Let’s just say, I am happy to already have my hotel in Zurich booked for next year (along with a few other places).

Latvia: One of my favorites this year. I love this faux black & white look of the staging. This is a perfect example of a ballad with a lot of energy in it. It’s slow, but she and her backers are still singing fully and you can feel their investment in this. I don’t think it would have taken anything away to have the extra two ladies on stage with her.

Romania: They’re going with the same horror movie aesthetic from the music video. I like that choice – bold but a calculated risk. Hate her outfit, though. She could stand to articulate more, but even without clear words, the madness she’s singing about comes through. Great voice!

Oh, golly, Conchita Wurst is back! And with a brand new look. Actually, my understanding is that Tom Neuwirth actually moved away from Conchita as his primary act and is trying to draw more attention to the more masculine persona “WURST.”

Denmark: I see they are duplicating the DMGP staging. Glad to see the hear the audience get so into it. Love how diverse her collection of performers are. That was nice and pleasant. Not sure if it is enough, though.

Sweden: I am not the biggest fan of this song, but even I can’t help but sing along and be caught up in it. What the heck are his backing singers wearing?! Well done, another easy qualifier.

Austria: I totally appreciate her vulnerability. She is conveying that brokenness of the lyrics very well. I still don’t think it is engaging enough to qualify, but I think this is the best possible performance that this song could have.

Croatia: So, why I like this song well enough, but don’t see a path forward for it. It is impressive that he can sounds so good laying on his back. So, I do not quite get the staging, did he die in the lava and is now among those “angels of God?” Also, I think having literal angel dancers is a bit much. It didn’t work for Bulgaria in 2010, cannot see it helping now. Oh no! He missed that big note towards the end – otherwise, a flawless vocal performance.

Malta: Definitely playing up to her youth, here. The staging is SO MUCH FUN! You can tell they’re having a good time up there. This is also the way how one effectively makes a huge stage small. Another Top Ten performance tonight.

Lithuania: He sounds good and his hair looks nice. This song is just mediocre and overall less impressive than Croatia, which is the other mediocre song tonight.

Russia: Let’s see if this lives up to 2016’s staging. I do think it may have been a mistake to try to rely on his voice so much. Oh! his reflections is sentient. He’s certainly a pop singer. Not gonna lie, I was hoping for a more dynamic staging.

Albania: One of my absolute favorites this year. Let’s see how it goes. I think the backing singers are a bit too loud. It creates this cacophony instead of textured harmonies. I do love her outfit, though, very tradition yet contemporary. Just as I was about to say how her vocals were great, she botched many of those final notes.

Norway: Schlager at its best, everyone. It’s a lot of fun. And I enjoy how the graphics capture the idea of calling out to Sami spirits (which is what the song is about). Just everything about this feels dated, though. The smart money would be on this qualifying, but I am not sure.

The Netherlands: The big favorite and my favorite. Let’s see. Oh! The use of the backing vocals for the refrain is perfect! I don’t quite understand the piano, especially one that is so small. But I think he doesn’t have much stage presence, so the piano is there to give him something to distract himself with so he doesn’t let his nerves take over. The use of lighting is on point!

North Macedonia: Oh, the fleet of reflections is cool. Don’t like her dress, but it’s not heinous. If you’re going to do such a basic, stripped down staging, your vocals must be dazzling. So far, so good. Oh! Love the images being projected on the back. They should have kept it going when she started singing again. Oh! Keeping the backing vocals quiet until the climax was a good decision. Again, a great vocal performance without much energy behind it.

Azerbaijan: Glad to see Azerbaijan back to its over-the-top stagings. The robotic arms are a perfect touch to emphasize the futuristic tone of the composition. Hmm, not sure those high notes are translating as well as they could. Fun.

And there we have it! The eighteen songs from tonight. Time for the recap.

My Top Ten from tonight:

  1. Switzerland

  2. Latvia

  3. Malta

  4. The Netherlands

  5. Romania

  6. Moldova

  7. Armenia

  8. Azerbaijan

  9. North Macedonia

  10. Sweden

Who I think will qualify (in no particular order):

  • The Netherlands

  • North Macedonia

  • Azerbaijan

  • Russia

  • Sweden

  • Malta

  • Austria

  • Lithuania

  • Armenia

  • Switzerland

I think Austria and Lithuania did enough tonight (and, more likely, last night) to push ahead of Albania and Denmark in my predictions. Again, I know the smart money is on Norway to qualify, but, I don’t know, I just don’t think it will.

Interval Act – Shalva Band: So, apparently, this group was supposed to represent Israel this year, but didn’t want to perform on Saturday (which is necessary for Grand Final competition) for religious reasons. So, they gave them this spot instead. Wow, these girls’ voices are amazing! Yeah, this song would do way better than Home in the Grand Final. Oh, well.

Let’s look at our auto-qualifiers!

Germany: My biggest guilty pleasure this year. Meh., they really should have kept the turning table. But they do sound great. Don’t like their outfits, though.

Italy: His outfit is awful. And I hope he has a bit more energy for the real thing. This was one of the big favorites until rehearsals began, I guess now I know why.

United Kingdom: The staging for this is confusing. The BBC has enough money to afford more than some generic space effects. The thing this song has going for it is Michael Rice’s voice, so he better step it up tomorrow night and Saturday.

FINALLY – Our Qualifiers

  • North Macedonia – Woohoo! Well deserved! (1 correct out of 1 countries)

  • The Netherlands – Yay! High quality song right here! (2 for 2)

  • Albania – pleasant surprise! Her jury performance must have been great (2 for 3)

  • Sweden – as expected (3 for 4)

  • Russia – no surprises here (4 for 5)

  • Azerbaijan – woohoo! shaking off last year’s fluke (5 for 6)

  • Denmark – whoa, guess I should have stuck with my gut on this one. Hopefully this means Lithuania won’t make it? (5 for 7)

  • Norway – No surprise, I guess, but I still didn’t anticipate it (5 for 8)

  • Switzerland – Probably the strongest performance tonight, so, makes sense (6 for 9)

  • Malta! No surprise, well deserved, as well! Happy for Malta to break its non-qualification streak (7 for 10)

Well, another semi-final in the books. Only Friday’s jury show and Saturday’s Final are left. We await the drawing of halves and the final running order. In the meantime, who do I think from among these ten has a legitimate shot at victory? Well, the Netherlands, still, and Switzerland. My goodness, Switzerland looked like a winner right away. The Dutch song is still the highest quality one this year, I think, and who I think should win. It may all come down to the running order.

Thanks for joining me on this ride. See y’all Saturday!


ESC 2019 – Song Reviews: Second Semi-Final

Hello Dear Readers!

While the First Semi-Final is packed full with average level songs, the second semi-final is a juggernaut, containing six of the top ten of the bookies’ favorites within it. Definitely one of the strongest semi-finals to date. So, who is going to survive?

 

 Running Order

Country

Performing Artist

Song

Selection

EO logo with Armenian flag

1

Armenia

Srbuk

Walking Out

Internal

This song represents an intriguing phenomenon. When you listen to it, you’re rocked by its banging composition and the powerful vocals. But as soon as it’s over…you forget it. Which puts its position in the running order – first – as a particularly bad omen. It needs to hope for a perfect 30 second clip for the recap to survive this gauntlet of a semi-final.

2

Ireland

Sarah McTernan

22

Internal

This is a cute song and an adorable singer. However, it is not very memorable and I am unsure of McTernan’s ability to perform live. I think this is a serviceable song and will likely give Ireland a respectable finish, but not a qualification.

3

Moldova

Anna Odobescu

Stay

National Selection

I love this song. It’s powerfully sung, has an interesting composition, and is not just a standard “please don’t leave me” song. However, it is a bit dated and has not exactly been tearing it up on the charts. Sadly, it is not going to qualify, but I do quite like it.

4

Switzerland

Luca Hänni

She Got Me

Mixed

WHOA! When was the last time that Switzerland had a contemporary song that was at the top of the betting odds? Now, personally, I think this song is a bit overrated, but I definitely get its appeal. The beat is fun, the lyrics are simple, and I imagine the dance routine will be outstanding. Expect the Swiss’ fourteen year dry spell to come to an end.

5

Latvia

Carousel

That Night

National Final

One of my favorites this year. Smooth, simple, and just plain groovy. Unfortunately, like Moldova, this is not a popular song. Unlike Moldova, I do not quite understand why. It is contemporary and stands out from the crowd. Expect this to fall flat in the arena and one television, unfortunately.

6

Romania

Ester Peony

On a Sunday

National Final

A fun and interesting song that helps you feel better about that break-up. If this was just about any other year, then it would be an easy qualifier. If this was on Tuesday, it would be an easy qualifier. In this semi-final, though, I’m not sure it can survive.

7

Denmark

Leonora

Love is Forever

National Final

This song is so adorable and Leonora is so sweet. It is exciting that, after 21 years, Denmark is finally sending a song that has a significant amount of non-English, but heartbreaking that DR is shying away from using the Danish language. This is likely to finish in the 8-12 range. It might sneak into the Final, but at the expense of songs with stronger betting odds.

8

Sweden

John Lundvik

Too Late for Love

National Final

In my opinion, the most overrated song in the Contest this year. It is a serviceable R&B song, but overall fairly generic. There are various, potentially problematic situations I am seeing around the ESC community around his backing singers (great articles here and here about the subject). I know this song is likely to finish in the Top Ten, but I think there are better entries that it will be blocking.

9

Austria

PAENDA

Limits

Internal

Like Denmark, this is a sweet song. Unlike Denmark, though, this song is not very interesting or captivating. While PAENDA is adorable and her voice is ethereal, this song is just…boring.

EO logo with Croatian flag

10

Croatia

Roko Blaževic

The Dream

National Final

This song is great for vocal warm-ups. One of the last things I do to make sure I’m ready to go. Otherwise, this song does not have too much merit. The lyrics are trite; the composition is basic – but his voice is amazing! I hope he comes back next year with a good song.

EO logo with Maltese flag

11

Malta

Michela Pace

Chameleon

Mixed

So, this song is often compared with Cyprus and Switzerland. While it is also quite popular, it is languishing behind the other two in the betting odds, despite being a stronger song in my opinion. A clear qualifier, for sure, and likely to finish in the Top Ten.

EO logo with Lithuanian flag

12

Lithuania

Jurijus Veklenko

Run with the Lions

National Final

My least favorite song, by far. The lyrics are poor, the composition is unappealing, and his voice is not a good fit for either. While this song may have had a chance in a weaker semi-final, there is no way it is qualifying.

EO logo with Russian flag

13

Russia

Sergey Lazarev

Scream

Internal

Sergey Lazarev is back! And hoping to reproduce the magic Dima Bilan was able to generate with his return trip in 2008 (Bilan achieved second place in 2006 before winning in Belgrade). Lazarev is back two Contests later after a Top Ten placing (remember, Russia skipped 2017) and, if his music video is any indication, he’s going to be bringing another astounding stage show. Expect this to qualify and threaten to win.

EO logo with Albanian flag

14

Albania

Jonida Maliqi

Ktheju Tokës

National Final

Another one of my favorites, a deeply powerful song. Like Georgia, this song has a distinct national flair to it. Unlike Georgia, this song is assertive instead of aggressive and captivating instead of frightening. Despite these advantages, I’m not sure it will qualify; I’m thinking 8-12th place for this.

EO logo with Norwegian flag

15

Norway

KEIINO

Spirit in the Sky

National Final

This is a fun song that attempts a genre that one only sees at Eurovision – the blending of traditional folk with schlager. This song does it quite well, too. The energy is amazing and the three of them work well together. However, there’s always a song each year that is high in the odds but fails to qualify; I think this might be it for 2019.

16

Netherlands

Duncan Laurence

Arcade

Internal

Another one of my favorites. Like Austria last year, from the first moment I heard this I thought it sounded like a winner. And, unlike Austria last year, this is leading the betting odds. It is contemporary, it is powerful, and Laurence is amazingly attractive. These come together to form a perfect storm for a potential winner.

EO logo with North Macedonian flag

17

North Macedonia

Tamara Todevska

Proud

Internal

A powerful song about female empowerment; like a mature version of Toy. This might be NMak’s best chance at qualifying in ages. Todevska has already proven that she can perform well on the ESC stage; this time, though, she has a song worth her amazing talent. I expect this to qualify but not quite reach the Top Ten.

EO logo with Azerbaijani flag

18

Azerbaijan

Chingiz

Truth

Internal

Finally, Azerbaijan is back with a song that is eccentric, unique, and will have an inherently interesting staging – just like in its golden years. A real banger of a song by a hot guy with a composition that is stunning. I cannot wait to see what it looks like on the stage in Tel Aviv.

My favorite ten

  1. The Netherlands

  2. Latvia

  3. North Macedonia

  4. Azerbaijan

  5. Albania

  6. Norway

  7. Moldova

  8. Denmark

  9. Russia

  10. Malta

Who I think will qualify (in no particular order)

  • The Netherlands

  • North Macedonia

  • Azerbaijan

  • Russia

  • Sweden

  • Malta

  • Albania

  • Denmark

  • Armenia

  • Switzerland

Russian flag mapBut, more importantly, do I think any of these songs have a legitimate shot at winning?

Oh my goodness, yes! The Netherlands, Switzerland, Russia, Malta, and Sweden all have legitimate chances at victory. All are in the top ten of the betting odds and will be memorable when standing against the other entries in the field. Realistically, I do not think Malta and Sweden are as serious contenders as the other three, but they should be taken seriously.