So, who would have won in 2020?

Hello Dear Readers!

Well, another Eurovision season is in the books. This one was unlike any other because of the historic cancellation of the 65th Edition of ESC. There have been an array of fan media sites and organizations across the internet holding mock competitions and polls in order to decide their own winner. Here on EO, we held the inaugural Eurovision Tournament this year, which was handily won by Iceland. While the Eurofandom will be arguing until the end of time about who would have won had 2020’s Contest occurred, EO hopes to draw its conclusion through combining some of the largest fan media polls of the 2020 Season. These are Eurostream, Eurovision Online, WiwiBloggs Fan Poll, Dziennik Eurowizyjny, ESC Plus, and the INFE fan poll, and – the biggest of them all – the OGAE fan poll (which allowed non-OGAE members to vote for the first time). These were chosen because: Eurostream and Eurovision Online are new, fan-driven pseudo-Contests that deserve attention and accolades, WiwiBloggs is (currently) the largest and most popular fan media website, Dziennik Eurowizyjny created the best video Contest, ESC Plus is one of the oldest and biggest fan media sites, and INFE & OGAE are the official confederation of fan clubs approved by the EBU. Let me be clear, Eurovision Obsession is not directly in partnership with any of these organizations/media outlets. Additionally, only three of the ten national broadcasters (not counting the RTVE poll from Spain) – those from Australia, Iceland, and San Marino – released a full list of the final ranking of all 41 songs. These rankings were compiled to provide an eighth ranking for this process.

Procedure

The results of each poll will be enumerated. For those that use semi-finals, the same thing most of us do for the real Contest will be done; the results of the two semi-finals will be combined to create the 27-41 rankings based on points earned and the specific media site’s tie-break procedures. Yes, this privileges the Netherlands and the Big Five, but that is how ESC is structured.

Once all eight 1-41 rankings are crafted, a composite 1-41 ranking will be crafted using each entry’s average placing (out to two decimal points). In the event of a tie, I will use the average percentage of points received as the tie-breaking variable. If the tie persists, then the countries’ performance in the EO Eurovision Tournament will be used. If the tie persists, then the two entries will just be considered tied. So, let’s look at the detailed results of each of our eight polls (which, again, are completely unaffiliated with ESC Obsession and have not provided any endorsement to this blog).

• 

  Eurostream 2020

  • Date: 9 May

  • Total number of points: 95,058

  • Voting Structure: Televote: individuals could vote in both semi-finals and the final; individuals can vote for 1-5 entries per vote. Jury: a selection of ESC stars, music professionals, and former ESC jurors from 38 of the participating countries; jury panels ranged from 1-4 members. Countries without juries Russia, Israel, and Latvia) were given a composite score from a selection of their neighbors.

  • Final Ranking: 50/50 Jury and Televote; jury points are totaled. The jury total provided the number of points available for the public. The televotes were totaled, converted to percentages, then the percentage was used to calculate points to be awarded.

    

    Copyright EuroStream 2020

• Winner: Iceland (9.12% of vote)
  02. Lithuania (6.31%)	22. Australia (1.70%)
  03. Russia (6.01%)	23. Serbia (1.49%)
  04. Sweden (5.89%)	24. Armenia (1.47%)
  05. Belgium (5.84%)	25. Israel (1.41%)
  06. Malta (5.72%)	26. Albania (1.32%)
  07. Switzerland (5.59%)	27. Estonia (4.19%)
  08. Italy (5.55%)	28. Poland (4.11%)
  09. Bulgaria (5.38%)	29. Finland (3.82%)
  10. Georgia (4.25%)	30. Latvia (3.69%)
  11. Azerbaijan (4.25%)	31. Ireland (3.58%)
  12. Germany (3.89%)	32. Ukraine (3.49%)
  13. Netherlands (3.70%)	33. Czech Republic (3.33%)
  14. Romania (3.51%)	34. Cyprus (3.23%)
  15. Norway (3.28%)	35. San Marino (2.96%)
  16. France (3.07%)	36. Moldova (1.89%)
  17. Greece (2.99%)	37. Portugal (1.60%)
  18. Denmark (2.48%)	38. Croatia (1.55%)
  19. Austria (2.00%)	39. North Macedonia (1.51%)
  20. United Kingdom (1.98%)	40. Belarus (1.25%)
  21. Spain (1.81%)	41. Slovenia (1.21%)

• Eurovision Online 2020

  • Date: 16 May

  • Total number of points: 9,512

  • Voting Structure: Jury – 41 jurors voted via traditional ESC points to name their top ten. They were separated into their respective semi-finals, and then all 41 were used for the jury votes in the Final. Televote – Collected by country. When this failed, the results from at-large voting were employed. See their explainer (linked on “Voting Structure”) for a full explanation from Eurovision Online.

  • Final Ranking: Combination of jury scores and televote scores at a 50/50 ratio.

Copyright Eurovision Online

• Winner: Bulgaria (10.87%)
  2	Iceland	10.51%	22	Slovenia	1.47%
  3	Sweden	9.59%	23	United Kingdom	0.80%
  4	Italy	5.93%	24	France	0.76%
  5	Lithuania	5.70%	25	Greece	0.40%
  6	Russia	5.45%	26	Spain	0.38%
  7	Switzerland	5.34%	27	Serbia	4.56%
  8	Ireland	4.84%	28	Romania	4.31%
  9	Malta	4.81%	29	Azerbaijan	3.97%
  10	San Marino	3.99%	30	Belgium	3.15%
  11	Germany	3.83%	31	Belarus	2.84%
  12	Ukraine	3.60%	32	Georgia	2.67%
  13	Norway	3.15%	33	North Macedonia	2.72%
  14	Armenia	2.71%	34	Finland	2.46%
  15	Denmark	2.69%	35	Portugal	2.09%
  16	Austria	2.69%	36	Croatia	1.94%
  17	Israel	2.61%	37	Cyprus	1.94%
  18	The Netherlands	2.44%	38	Estonia	1.72%
  19	Australia	2.14%	39	Poland	1.68%
  20	Albania	1.77%	40	Czech Republic	1.31%
  21	Latvia	1.53%	41	Moldova	0.70%

• WiwiBloggs Fan Poll

  • Date: 16 May

  • Total number of votes: 35,644

  • Voting Structure: Open public vote

  • Final Ranking: Summation of votes cast

Winner: Switzerland (14.90%)
2	Italy	11.93%	22	Latvia	1.19%
3	Serbia	8.78%	23	Albania	1.14%
4	Greece	6.02%	24	Spain	1.01%
5	Lithuania	5.96%	25	United Kingdom	0.95%
6	Iceland	4.69%	26	Ireland	0.94%
7	Bulgaria	3.52%	27	Belgium	0.85%
8	Malta	3.40%	28	Poland	0.80%
9	Russia	3.26%	29	Croatia	0.75%
10	Norway	2.58%	30	Cyprus	0.75%
11	Ukraine	2.46%	31	Portugal	0.60%
12	Romania	2.36%	32	France	0.57%
13	Germany	2.31%	33	Austria	0.56%
14	Azerbaijan	2.26%	34	Czech Republic	0.54%
15	Israel	2.11%	35	North Macedonia	0.46%
16	Georgia	1.92%	36	Slovenia	0.45%
17	Armenia	1.90%	37	San Marino	0.45%
18	Sweden	1.85%	38	Belarus	0.45%
19	The Netherlands	1.62%	39	Finland	0.42%
20	Australia	1.46%	40	Estonia	0.33%
21	Denmark	1.21%	41	Moldova	0.28%

• ESC Plus

  • Date: 16 May

  • Total number of points: 2375

  • Voting Structure: Open public vote

  • Final Ranking: The raw votes were converted using a proprietary algorithm into the “final classification.”

• Winner: Lithuania (8.59%)
  2	Switzerland	6.61%	22	Albania	1.77%
  3	Iceland	5.60%	23	Armenia	1.68%
  4	Bulgaria	5.56%	24	France	1.52%
  5	Malta	4.51%	25	Ireland	1.52%
  6	Norway	4.51%	26	Latvia	1.43%
  7	Italy	4.25%	27	The Netherlands	1.26%
  8	Azerbaijan	4.25%	28	Poland	1.14%
  9	Russia	3.92%	29	Georgia	0.97%
  10	Germany	3.83%	30	Portugal	0.97%
  11	Sweden	3.45%	31	North Macedonia	0.97%
  12	Romania	2.99%	32	Cyprus	0.93%
  13	Australia	2.82%	33	Croatia	0.93%
  14	Greece	2.78%	34	San Marino	0.88%
  15	Israel	2.69%	35	Austria	0.88%
  16	Ukraine	2.61%	36	Moldova	0.84%
  17	United Kingdom	2.15%	37	Estonia	0.80%
  18	Serbia	2.11%	38	Belarus	0.67%
  19	Spain	2.06%	39	Czech Republic	0.59%
  20	Denmark	2.02%	40	Slovenia	0.55%
  21	Belgium	1.94%	41	Finland	0.46%

• Dziennik Eurowizyjny

  • Date: 9 May

  • Total number of points: 9513 points across three shows

  • Voting Structure: Televote: individuals could vote in both semi-finals and the final. Jury: a selection of ESC fans and stars from the participating countries

  • Final Ranking: 50/50 Jury and Televote; jury points are totaled. The jury total provided the number of points available for the public. The televotes were totaled, converted to percentages, then the percentage was used to calculate points to be awarded.

Copyright Dziennik Eurowizyjny

• Winner: Switzerland (12.09%)
  2	Lithuania	11.65%	22	United Kingdom	0.46%
  3	Bulgaria	10.89%	23	Albania	0.21%
  4	Norway	8.52%	24	Spain	0.19%
  5	Malta	7.95%	25	France	0.17%
  6	Azerbaijan	6.14%	26	The Netherlands	0.08%
  7	Iceland	5.78%	27	Austria	3.45%
  8	Germany	5.51%	28	Finland	2.54%
  9	Russia	5.17%	29	Czech Republic	2.30%
  10	Sweden	4.58%	30	Belgium	2.28%
  11	Ukraine	3.93%	31	Portugal	2.05%
  12	Romania	3.36%	32	Ireland	1.94%
  13	Israel	2.23%	33	Georgia	1.89%
  14	Italy	2.14%	34	Cyprus	1.72%
  15	Greece	1.98%	35	Croatia	1.03%
  16	Serbia	1.53%	36	North Macedonia	0.99%
  17	Denmark	1.49%	37	Estonia	0.94%
  18	Australia	1.39%	38	San Marino	0.78%
  19	Latvia	0.93%	39	Slovenia	0.78%
  20	Armenia	0.84%	40	Moldova	0.74%
  21	Poland	0.78%	41	Belarus	0.52%

• INFE Poll 2020

  • Date: 12 May

  • Total number of points: 1262 points from 22 INFE Member Groups

  • Voting Structure: Each of the 22 INFE member groups submitted points in classic Eurovision style (points 12, 10, 8-1) to a total of ten entries.

  • Final Ranking: Simple summation of all points distributed

• Winner: Lithuania (14.74%)
  2.	Switzerland	10.54%	22.	Australia	0.87%
  3.	Italy	7.69%	23.	Slovenia	0.79%
  4.	Iceland	7.37%	24.	Greece	0.79%
  5.	Russia	7.37%	25.	Albania	0.79%
  6.	Bulgaria	6.66%	26.	Belgium	0.55%
  7.	Norway	6.42%	27.	United Kingdom	0.55%
  8.	Malta	4.75%	28.	Poland	0.40%
  9.	Sweden	4.52%	29.	The Netherlands	0.24%
  10.	Azerbaijan	4.44%	30.	Georgia	0.24%
  11.	Ukraine	3.80%	31.	Czech Republic	0.24%
  12.	Germany	3.17%	32.	N. Macedonia	0.16%
  13.	Romania	2.06%	33.	Croatia	0.16%
  14.	Armenia	1.98%	34.	Austria	0.08%
  15.	Serbia	1.74%	35.	Portugal	0.00%
  16.	Cyprus	1.35%	35.	Belarus	0.00%
  17.	Latvia	1.58%	35.	Estonia	0.00%
  18.	Israel	1.03%	35.	San Marino	0.00%
  19.	Ireland	1.03%	35.	Finland	0.00%
  20.	Spain	0.95%	35.	Moldova	0.00%
  21.	France	0.95%	35.	Denmark	0.00%

• OGAE 2020 Fan Contest

  • Date: 16 May

  • Total number of points: 4989

  • Voting Structure: Each of the 45 member clubs submitted points in classic Eurovision style (points 12, 10, 8-1) to a total of ten entries. These votes constitute a pseudo-jury vote. The televote is comprised from non-OGAE members, who could vote for the first time this year. These votes were collated and countries were ranked from 1 – 41. Points were distributed via taking the same amount of points distributed by the OGAE fan clubs and divvying them up based on percentage of votes received.

  • Final Ranking: OGAE club votes combined with at-large voting at a 50/50 ratio.

• Winner: Lithuania (15.43%)
  2	Iceland	12.71%	22	Albania**	0.42%
  3	Switzerland	12.43%	23	Belgium**	0.42%
  4	Bulgaria	8.04%	24	Ireland^	0.42%
  5	Italy	7.62%	25	The Netherlands^	0.42%
  6	Norway	5.93%	26	Croatia	0.40%
  7	Germany	5.79%	27	Spain	0.38%
  8	Russia	5.23%	28	Estonia	0.30%
  9	Malta	4.91%	29	Cyprus	0.28%
  10	Sweden	3.79%	30	Poland	0.22%
  11	Azerbaijan	3.59%	31	Georgia	0.16%
  12	Ukraine	1.96%	32	Austria+	0.14%
  13	Serbia	1.78%	33	Moldova+	0.14%
  14	Romania	1.14%	34	San Marino+	0.14%
  15	Israel	0.98%	35	United Kingdom	0.10%
  16	Latvia	0.90%	36	North Macedonia#	0.08%
  17	Australia	0.78%	37	Portugal#	0.08%
  18	Greece	0.72%	38	Finland#	0.08%
  19	Denmark	0.68%	39	Slovenia#	0.08%
  20	Armenia*	0.64%	40	Belarus	0.02%
  21	France*	0.64%	41	Czech Republic	0.00%
  *Armenia had a higher OGAE televote than France
  **Albania had more wins in the EO Tournament
  ^Ireland had a higher OGAE televote than the Netherlands
  +San Marino had the fewest OGAE televotes, Austria had more wins than Moldova in the EO Tournament
  #First tie-break, Finland & Slovenia had fewer wins in the EO Tournament, Finland had the higher vote percentage in the EO Tournament. North Macedonia had higher vote percentage than Portugal in the EO Tournament

• TV Broadcasters

  • Date: 17 May

  • Total number of votes: 3 broadcasters: SBS (Australia), RÚV (Iceland), SMRTV (San Marino)

  • Voting Structure: While the linked Eurovision World article uses all ten broadcasters’ top ten lists to determine who would have won, EO required a ranking of all 41 countries in order to include it in this calculation. All three rankings were averaged for each country (or two rankings for Australia, Iceland, and San Marino).

  • Final Ranking: The final averaged rankings were used to compile the songs from 1 to 41. Average ranking is given in the table below.

• 

  Winner: Lithuania (2.67)
  2	Russia	3.00	22	Serbia	22.00
  3	Iceland	3.50	23	Belgium	22.33
  4	Italy	4.00	24	San Marino	22.50
  5	Bulgaria	5.00	25	France	23.67
  6	Switzerland	5.33	26	Austria	25.33
  7	Norway	9.67	27	Cyprus	26.00
  8	Sweden	9.67	28	Latvia	26.33
  9	Malta	10.00	29	Armenia	26.67
  10	Germany	10.33	29	Ireland	26.67
  11	Azerbaijan	10.67	31	North Macedonia	29.00
  12	Denmark	13.67	32	Finland	29.67
  13	Romania	14.00	33	Georgia	30.00
  14	The Netherlands	15.00	34	Croatia	31.67
  15	Ukraine	17.00	35	Moldova	32.33
  16	United Kingdom	17.33	36	Australia	33.00
  17	Israel	18.00	37	Estonia	33.33
  18	Greece	18.33	38	Slovenia	34.00
  19	Spain	19.33	39	Czech Republic	34.33
  20	Albania	21.33	40	Belarus	34.67
  21	Poland	21.67	41	Portugal	35.00

Final Ranking

41. Belarus
40. Moldova
39. Czech Republic
38. Estonia
37. Finland
36. Slovenia
35. Portugal
34. North Macedonia
33. Croatia
32. San Marino
31. Cyprus
30. Poland
29. Austria
28. Georgia
27. Ireland
26. France
25. United Kingdom
24. Belgium
23. Albania
22. Spain
21. Latvia
20. The Netherlands
19. Australia
18. Denmark
17. Armenia
16. Serbia
15. Greece
14. Israel
13. Ukraine
12. Romania
11. Azerbaijan

And our TOP TEN is:

10. Germany
9. Sweden
8. Norway
7. Malta
6. Russia
5. Italy
4. Bulgaria
3. Switzerland
2. Iceland

And our winner is:

1. LITHUANIA

Final Thoughts

Well, there you have it, seven major polls plus three broadcasters reveal that it is quite likely that LITHUANIA would have won (for the first time) had Eurovision 2020 been held. This would have toppled betting odds favorite, Bulgaria and relegated Iceland to the runner-up position yet again. Do I think this is accurate? Well, I think it is the best I can do to find a legitimate prediction. Of course, the majority of voters are not the same mega-fans that would have been voting in these polls and viewing these alternative programming. The broadcasters’ ranking may be the closest we get to representing the general public’s view and there’s evidence that, had all ten been incorporated, Iceland would be the broadcast favorite. So, what do I think all this means? Lithuania and Iceland were legitimate contenders. Bulgaria and Switzerland, while strong entries, would likely needed to have relied upon world-stopping performances in order to seriously contend for victory. Additionally, fan favorites Latvia and San Marino under-performed whereas fan scourges Norway and (to an extent) France over-performed.

Meanwhile, my personal Top Ten is:

10. Israel

9. Austria

8. Latvia

7. Albania

6. Australia

5. Russia

4. Iceland

3. Poland

2. Malta

1. Switzerland

I think 2020 would not have been an earth-shattering Contest, resulting in only a few classics (Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Russia) while being considered mostly forgettable by most, much like 2006 or 2017. It breaks my heart that Bulgaria, Iceland, Lithuania, and Malta all had top ten betting odds to win – which would have been a first for each country. Throw in Switzerland which would have gotten its first back-to-back Top Ten finishes since 1981-1982. But, hopefully, this means that these (and other) countries will more seriously take into consideration the fact that they have a legitimate chance of winning against the likes of juggernauts like Russia and Sweden. I look forward to a lifetime of debate over who would have won, but hope that this article can provide guidance to folks in debate.