Posts tagged “esc predictions

Eurovision 2019 – Grand Final Predictions

Hello Dear Readers!

Finally, it is here: The Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2019 in Tel Aviv! One of the greatest days of the year. So, what are we looking at? Well, an array of uptempo crowd-stoppers, a once-in-an-era ballad that has been a runaway odds-favorite since it was selected, and a piece of crossover-operatic-musical-whimsy.

For your ESC Parties:

  • Help your uninitiated friends with my Eurovision for Beginners

  • Check-out my ESC 2019 – Write-ups that provide a brief history of ESC, explains the rules, and gives an explanation of the songs.

  • Also check-out my 2019 Country Profiles – Grand Final Only which covers the 26 entries of the Grand Final – giving a brief history of each country, details of each entry, and a brief bio for each performing artist.

 

After two semi-finals (live notes for the first and second semis) short on surprises (hmm, Portugal failing and Belarus qualifying might be the two biggest ones), We turn to a Grand Final with a running order that may turn things over completely. Let’s look at the top ten in the betting odds (post-jury final):

  1. The Netherlands (performing 12th)

  2. Australia (performing 25th)

  3. Switzerland (performing 24th)

  4. Sweden (performing 9th)

  5. Italy (performing 22nd)

  6. Iceland (performing 17th)

  7. Russia (performing 5th)

  8. Azerbaijan (performing 20th)

  9. France (performing 21st)

  10. Norway (performing 15th)

First reactions: Cyprus, Greece, and Malta are completely out of the top ten (guess they truly were pretenders). Australia and France have moved into the top ten, while France peaked around third place and started dropping again, Australia has firmly placed itself into the second position behind the Netherlands after qualifying on Tuesday night.

If the Netherlands was in the second half, I would say it was an easy win for the Dutch. While 12th is a good spot, it is surely not the sure thing that, say, 22nd is. So, now the door is open for the likes of Switzerland (which has the strongest staging and performance across the 41 entries), Italy (whose edge and novelty helps it standout), and Australia (a powerful and captivating song that has shot up the odds á la Cyprus 2018).

 

In my opinion, the winner will be one of these four

The Netherlands     Australia      Italy     Switzerland

Dutch Flag Map

 

 

The Netherlands, my personal favorite, is perhaps one of the highest quality entries to date. It is earnest, honest, and heart-breaking. It also suffers from a singer without much stage presence leading to a boring, trite staging.

 

 

Australian flag map

 

Australia is perhaps the most fun “believe in yourself” song we’ve seen since, perhaps, Austria 2014. It has the magic of a Disney song and a whimsical staging that is absolutely stunning. It also is a song from a country that historically fares quite terribly with the televoters surrounded by two equally as mesmerizing stagings and songs (Switzerland and Spain).

 

 

 

Italian flag map

Italy is a powerful, dark song that stirs deep emotions in the listener performed passionately from a country that is quite popular with juries and televoters. However, it is staged in such a way to diminish this impact – much brighter than it should be; not to mention, juxtaposed to France (which is preceding it), it may come off as over dark.

 

 

 

 

Swiss flag map

Switzerland, much forlorn and forgotten on the Eurovision stage, has come with the tightest, most interesting, most dynamic performance this year and beyond. Unfortunately, this is a rather generic song that is like so much else we hear on the radio; plus, the juries historically drag down the Swiss.

 

 

Taking all of this into consideration, right now, if I had to predict the winner (and I do, since I am a decade-long ESC blogger), I believe that The Netherlands will win!

EO logo witch Dutch flag

I have believed this from the first time I heard the song and am choosing to stick to my instincts on this. Its quality as a composition, as a lyrical work, and in Duncan Laurence’s sheer vocal talent will all shine through. I think the Netherlands will handedly win the jury vote and, furthermore, will finish top five among the televote, though, not number one, but still high enough to win the Contest.

I think the top ten will comprise of:

  1. The Netherlands

  2. Switzerland

  3. Australia

  4. Italy

    Icelandic flag map

  5. Sweden

  6. Iceland

    Maltese flag map

  7. Malta

  8. Russia

  9. Norway

  10. Serbia

And who will be in the Bottom Ten? I hate thinking of the negative, but again, I must make a prediction:

Cypriot flag map

  1. North Macedonia

  2. Cyprus

  3. Denmark

  4. Belarus

  5. Israel

  6. Albania

  7. Estonia

  8. San Marino

  9. United Kingdom

  10. Germany

As y’all know, I love North Macedonia, Albania, and Denmark – but I cannot see them succeeding (this is doubly so as Albania was put in the 2nd slot, which is generally reserved for the weakest ballad).

Quite frankly, while my prediction average needs to go back up (it’s back down below 80%, currently) as long as the Netherlands wins, I will be happy. I cannot wait to see how this turns out!

Happy Eurovision Everyone!
Be sure to come back tonight so you can follow my live notes as the Contest unfolds.

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ESC 2019 – Song Reviews: Recap!

Hello Dear Readers!

I think this might be the quickest I’ve gone through the reviews, haha, but desperate times call for desperate measures. So, a quick recap of the reviews for those who want the simple TL:DR summary.

My Personal Top Ten

  1. The Netherlands

  2. Latvia

  3. North Macedonia

  4. Czech Republic

  5. Greece

  6. Azerbaijan

  7. Albania

  8. Germany

  9. Portugal

  10. Norway

Who I think will qualify:

First Semi-Final

Second Semi-Final

  • Greece

  • Portugal

  • Estonia

  • Iceland

  • Australia

  • Belgium

  • Czech Republic

  • Slovenia

  • San Marino

  • Cyprus

  • The Netherlands

  • North Macedonia

  • Azerbaijan

  • Russia

  • Sweden

  • Malta

  • Albania

  • Denmark

  • Armenia

  • Switzerland

And who do I think will finish in the Top Ten?

  • The Netherlands

  • Italy

  • Russia

  • Sweden

  • Malta

  • Cyprus

  • Spain

  • Portugal

  • Greece

  • Switzerland

Who among these do I think can win? Well, you’ll have to come back for my Contender or Pretender Series!


ESC 2018: Song Reviews – Recap!

Hello Dear Readers!

Here we are, at the end of another initial reviews week. I’m sure many of you feel vindicated, many of you feel confused, and some of you may even be angry – no matter how you feel, thanks for reading 🙂

In case you missed it, here are my song reviews:
Semi-Final One
Semi-Final Two
Automatic Qualifiers

Preferences

First things first, which songs did I like the most? Check out this year’s ESC Obsession 2018 Preference Bracket to find out.

Looking for your own bracket? Here is this year’s blank bracket for you and your ESC friends to fill out! ESC Obsession 2018 Eurovision Tournament

But, which songs currently comprise my personal Top Ten heading into the Contest?

  • Armenia

  • Belarus

  • Belgium

  • Bulgaria

  • Czech Republic

  • Estonia

  • Israel

  • Greece

  • Latvia

  • Sweden

Predictions

As a quick refresher, I predicted that these songs would finish in the Top Ten: (in no particular order)

  • Israel

  • Estonia

  • Austria

  • Australia

  • Czech Republic

  • Italy

  • Germany

  • Montenegro

  • The Netherlands

  • Sweden

Of, these, I thought five had a legitimate chance at victory: (again, in no particular order)

  • Austria

  • The Netherlands

  • Czech Republic

  • Montenegro

  • Australia

Currently, Australia and Czech Republic are both in the top ten of the betting odds, meaning, that I will discuss them more in next week’s Contender or Pretender series. Let’s dive into the three other entries receiving little attention from the bookies.

Austria – From the very first time I heard this song, it sounded like a winner to me. From the composition and style to the lyrics to the how smooth César Sampson is. This song may not be on too many radars right now, but it will shoot towards the top of the scoreboard, I can feel it. Now, since I first heard this song in March, I have seen videos of him performing it live, and it does not quite translate, at least, not during the preview concerts. Ultimately, this impacts his betting odds, but it won’t affect his final position with the juries and televoters on the night. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, it’s truly difficult for a person of color, particularly a Black person, to be particularly successful at ESC. I honestly think this can be a counterexample to that opinion.

Montenegro – This song is on no one’s radar and actually falls towards the bottom of the betting odds currently. So, why on earth do I think it can win? Several reasons: 1) it’s one of only a few true and well ballads, 2) it’s a very classic Balkan sound, 3) the other four former Yugoslav nations will struggle to reach the Final, let alone seriously compete, leaving Montenegro there to soak up all their big points as well as from other Balkan allies not voting for Bulgaria, and 4) it’s a high quality song! The composition alone is worthy of victory. The singing is right on and the lyrics are captivating. This song should narrow those odds greatly once it qualifies and then we’ll see just how big it will go. Again, without any other former-Yugoslav country (and really, any Balkan country not named Greece or Bulgaria) having a legitimate shot at even qualifying, I think Montenegro will do quite well.

The Netherlands – A song that started on everyone’s radar as it is performed by a one-half of a runner-up duo, it’s country rock – a genre not often heard (if ever) on the ESC stage, and it was one the first to be selected. Don’t underestimate the power of a well done song that is unlike any other in the competition. The real question is whether enough country and rock fans will be voting to bring the Netherlands up the scoreboard, as I think it will only finish in the high single digits/low teens among the jury. It is most definitely not a traditional Eurovision entry like Austria and Montenegro, but that just may be its saving grace.

Who do I think will actually win? Well, you need to check out my prediction bracket! ESC Obsession 2018 Prediction Bracket

The bigger story here is that, for as long as I have been keeping this blog (December 2009), no victor has come from outside the top ten folks according to the betting odds. This is going to be an interesting year – a well-deserved anomaly for Portugal, hosting for the first time ever after so many failed attempts.

Come back next week for the annual Contender or Pretender series where I break down each of the top ten songs according to the betting odds and determine which ones have a legitimate shot at victory and which are merely distractions.

Until next time, find me on Twitter, Reddit, Pinterest, or YouTube, all @escobsession


ESC 2018: Song Reviews – Automatic Qualifiers

Hello Dear Readers!

So, we already know for sure six qualifiers: the Big Five (France, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, and Germany) and Portugal (our defending champion). But, even with a bye out of the first round, do any of these songs have a chance of winning?

Country

Performing Artist

Song

Selection

Portugal

Cláudia Pascoal feat. Isaura

O Jardim [Garden]

National Final

Thoughts:

A pretty song that is certainly stirring. It won a weak and dated national selection; which means that this is vulnerable to another home turf letdown. I don’t think we’ll have a disaster we saw in Austria or Norway these past ten Contests, but don’t expect it to do all that well.

 France

Madame Monsieur

Mercy

National Final

Thoughts:

I like this song, but I’m not sure how it will perform. On one hand, the French are on a role and this song is certainly contemporary. But on the otherhand, the lyrics are confusing and I think this is reflected in composition. I don’t know, I think it will depend on its final running order slot to see how it fares on the night.

 Germany

Michael Schulte

You Let Me Walk Alone

National Final

Thoughts:

Ehh, this is definitely enough to pull Germany out of its recent slump. But I, personally, do not really enjoy this song. I think it’s boring and listless. But I think a ballad devoted to a dead mother will do well.

 Italy

Ermal Meta & Fabrizio Moro

Non Mi Avete Fatto Niente [You’ve Done Nothing to Me]

Mixed

Thoughts:

I do not like this at all. I just don’t get it. Condescending lyrics, uninspired composition, and two singers without much chemistry. It will probably do well, because Italy generally does well, but Top Ten may be a stretch.

 Spain

Amaia & Alfred

Tu Canción [Your Song]

National Final

Thoughts:

It’s been a while since we’ve heard an old-fashioned, Eurovision ballad duet. It sounds like something from the past, but not in a bad way. It sounds like what one would compose when thinking of a “stereotypical Western ESC ballad.” Depending on its running order slot, it could do quite well for itself.

 United Kingdom

SurRie

Storm

National Final

Thoughts:

This song subtly grew on me over time. I like its message and think it goes at the standard inspiration delivery in a novel way. I worry about its immediate impact effect. It will most likely continue Britain’s current trend of not doing well, but not failing.

*Selection of the competing song can be internal (selected by producers or a secret jury), come through a national selection (singers with songs competed against each other), or mixed (either the song or the artist was picked internally and the other was picked in a national final)

So, which songs do I think have a legitimate shot at finishing in the top ten? (in no particular order)

  • Italy

  • Germany

How would I rank them for myself? (in order)

  1. Portugal

  2. United Kingdom

  3. France

  4. Spain

  5. Germany

  6. Italy

And, most importantly, do I think any of these six songs have what it takes to win?

NOPE. While Italy will most likely do well, it is not strong enough nor memorable enough to take the crown. Likewise, Germany is going to do well, but sad songs rarely have the steam needed for victory (just ask Serbia & Montenegro 2004).

Check back tomorrow for our recap, our first prediction for who will win, and the reveal of the ESC Obsession bracket!