ESC2015: Contender or Pretender

Hello Dear Readers! Time for our annual Contender or Pretender series! Once again, we have a slew of bookie favorites that I am taking upon myself to put through the ringer as we head into Eurovision Week 2015! I have selected the six entries that have the highest odds according to OddsChecker: Sweden, Azerbaijan, Slovenia, Australia, Italy, and Estonia. Interestingly enough, Norway and Lithuania, both early favorites, seem to be fading as the Contest draws near. Given the fact that the opening reception is occurring as I write this, we’ll just go through all of these fantastic songs together!

Sweden
Heroes performed Måns Zelmerlöw
Reason it’s a contender: Another year, another Swedish entry picked by bookies and fans alike to win. This year, we see Måns Zelmerlöw finally earn the Swedish ticket to ESC. A likable, attractive guy with a schlager song that is catchy, well composed, and fantastically performed.
Reason it’s a pretender: We have not seen a true schlager song win the Contest since Latvia back in 2002. Heroes, for all its merits, is full-blown Germanic pop meant for ESC: i.e., schlager. Fans tend to get less enthused for this style, particularly in the East.
Final Verdict: Contender! Since missing the Final in 2010, Sweden has only brought its top game to the Contest, this year is no different. The song has already been charting in several countries and the staging is impeccable. Expect another top three finish for Sweden.

Azerbaijan

Hour of the Wolf performed by Elnur Hüseynov
Reason it’s a contender: Well-written, well-composed, well-performed, Hour of the Wolf is a perfect confluence of elements of victory. After last year’s understated performance garnered Azerbaijan’s first ever finish outside the Top Ten, expect a stage show that dazzles!
Reason it’s a pretender: A tepid performance will result in this song being lost in the shuffle of ballads and washed out by the uptempo pieces.
Final Verdict: Contender! This song is the real deal. Everything about this song represents the heights of music composition and lyric writing. There is a rare gem of an artistic work like this at the Contest. This song has the potential to win and promote high standards of music within the Contest.

Slovenia
There for You performed by Maraaya
Reason it’s a contender: The song is modern and relatable — and the song reflects the relationship between the husband and wife! It’s an easy song to sing along to and inspires an instant connection from the listener.
Reason it’s a pretender: Interestingly enough, up to date songs do not tend to win the Contest (with Euphoria being the notable exception). The singer’s voice is also a bit unique, which may rub some viewers the wrong way.
Final Verdict: Pretender! This song is lovely and cute, but not strong enough to help Maraaya lift the crystal microphone Saturday night. While this might be Slovenia’s strongest showing since 2011, I do not think that the song has gained enough steam to propel it beyond the stronger entries.

Australia
Tonight Again performed by Guy Sebastian
Reason it’s a contender: The song is uptempo, fun, and incredibly easy to dance to. Guy Sebastian is charismatic and Australia has already shown that it will pull no punches in its quest for victory.
Reason it’s a pretender: There are a lot of folks out there that will angrily withhold votes for this song simply because Australia is not a European country. Additionally, R&B has not traditionally played well at the Contest.
Final Verdict: Contender! For as many people who will not vote for Australia, there are just as many who will. Guy Sebastian has the added bonus of already having some name recognition. The song is contemporary, fun, and, if performed flawlessly, has a real shot of sealing the deal for the Aussies!

Italy
Grande Amore performed by Il Volo
Reason it’s a contender: Fresh off its OGAE International victory, the Italian entry seems to be peaking around the right time. It is everything that one imagines when one thinks of Italian music – operatic tenors singing a dramatic song about love.
Reason it’s a pretender: The song is a bit old-fashioned and has an air of self-importance. Not to mention that Italy seems to always just fall short of its potential since its return to the Contest.
Final Verdict: Pretender! While this song did win the OGAE International Poll, which predicted both Sweden’s and Denmark’s victory, the poll is imperfect, as many of the others that have fared well in the poll have fallen flat at the Contest (for example: San Marino 2013). At the end of the day, Grande Amore is too dramatic and too predictable to bring the Contest back to Italy.

Estonia
Goodbye to Yesterday performed by Elina Born & Stig Rästa
Reason it’s a contender: The song is gritty and unexpected. Not only that, but the duo have decent chemistry together and the lyrics lend themselves to an unfolding narrative on-stage.
Reason it’s a pretender: The song is a little too edgy for a mostly family-oriented program. Many of the viewers who will be tuning in on the night may be turned off by the song’s subject matter and a couple with such a large age discrepancy.
Final Verdict: Pretender! This song appeals to many for its edge, but not enough to make-up for those who will be turned-off by it. Actually, I think Estonia will not only NOT win, but will finish with a disappointing final placing outside the Top Ten.