ESC2014 – Final Predictions and Notes
Hello Dear Readers!
Finally, after much struggle and anguish and many hours, I have finally resolved enough of my technical woes to finally be able to post my notes for y’all!
Reactions from the Jury Final
Last night was the jury final and I can safely say that only one country had a bad enough performance to hurt themselves. Though, Italy had, by far, the worse performance. It was pretty flat. This will definitely be Italy’s worse finish since returning. Even if Emma has a mind-blowing performance tonight, I see little reason to believe that she will score any higher than 15 based on the jury performance alone.
The UK also had some minor issues when a backing singer tried to end the song a few seconds early. I am sure that will not happen again tonight. Poland also seemed to suffer from some timing issues that affected the performance.
A few countries also helped their case. Azerbaijan, a song that was already jury fodder, will likely score very highly for the performance she gave last night. Likewise, Austria, Sweden, and Switzerland also gave exhilerating performances that are sure to go over well with the juries. I won’t go into more detail because they were minor improvements to their semi-final performances. Spain gave a good performance as well. Valentina Monetta from San Marino was the most improved from her semi-final performance and has secured that she will at least be spared the embarassment of a null points.
Well, I think (and really, really hope) that this will be the closest Contest in quite some time. The odds favorite is now Austria, with Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, and the UK right behind. After that, the odds begin to drop. After much back and forth and consultation with my new friends waiting in line for the shows, I truly think that Sweden will take the crown. Denmark’s song and staging is weak. The Netherlands will benefit from being so close to the end and so different from everything else, but at the end of the day, country has never placed higher than second at ESC and I do not think that will change this year. I do not think the juries will be as enamored with the UK entry as the fans are. Even though the Austrian entry is my favorite this year, I do not think it will be a winner. Aside from Conchita Wurst’s look, songs in this style – big, dramatic, ballads that sound like they should be on a James Bond soundtrack – do not have as much mass appeal as one would think. Especially, not compared to more traditional pop ballads such as the one Sweden has. Sweden has a simple staging that emphasizing the song; its subtly and power seperate it from the other entries, the juries traditionally like these kinds of songs, and the drama is just enough to captivate audiences without scaring them off. Undo has the perfect combination of factors to carry the trophy, and the Contest, back across the Øresund for the sixtieth edition in 2015
After Sweden, I think the remaining Top Ten will be:
- The Netherlands
As far as the Bottom Five, I would predict Italy, Belarus, Iceland, Slovenia, and Finland. These five lack a combination of adequate public appeal, public interest, and stagning.
Final Thoughts Ahead of the Grand Final
Let’s try to keep the politics out of ESC! This goes both ways. As far as Russia is concerned, booing Russia does not help anything and only encourages the true villains more. What happens when you boo the Tomaschevy Twins is that you are booing 17 girls who are Junior Eurovision champions – that’s all. The best way to handle the situation is to sit quietly; lack of reaction is much more impactful. Additionally, with Austria. What the character of Conchita Wurst represents is great, but that is no reason to vote. Give Austria points because Rise Like a Pheonix is an amazing song, not because you want the drag queen to win.
And with that, enjoy the show!! It promises to be fantastic! I will be keeping live notes the best I can from the ESC party that I am attending. See you this evening!