Because it’s getting close…

Hello lovely readers!  I know that I have been absent for a while – and for that I apologize.  School life is rather demanding!  So, this year I’ve decided to do things differently.  I will be using recap clips of the semis and final in order to make my first round of predictions.  This is rather different from my normal rout of abstaining to listening to the songs, but I really think it is my only option left given the circumstances.  So, let’s begin, shall we!

General Notes: What a year full of awesome songs.  There appears to be some true gems in the field, as well as a handful of “better luck next year” entries.  There’s a few I am undecided on from just the clips alone.  Breaking it down by semi-final will make things a little easier.  More than any other year, there’s seems to be a staunch dichotomy between ballads and up-tempo songs; there are hardly any mid-tempo pieces this year.  Interestingly enough, I think that will only help the mid-tempos all that much more.

 

Semi-Final One:

Montenegro: Really Crna Gora?  This is not the way to make a come back.  At least you’re back in the Contest.

Iceland: Lovely, lovely!  This seems rather strong

Greece: Yet another foot-stomper.  I expect big things.

Latvia: I’ve already forgotten this song, and it’s still playing

Albania: Yay, glad they’re sticking with they’re own language this year.

Romania: Forgettable, but will be successful due to its place in the running order

Switzerland: half-hearted rock tune, back to the semi-finals with you!

Belgium: This is okay, but falls a little flat for me

Finland: Swedish for the Finns! Not a strong ballad in a field of good slow songs

Israel: blast from the past!  I like it, but I don’t think Europe will

San Marino: I love this country, but feel bad about this song.  It’s definitely better than I thought it was going to be, though.

Cyprus: going to its Greek roots, surely will get through with help from up north

Denmark: y’all know what I think of this song already (DMGP2012).  Decent chance of moving through

Russia: Grandmas make good gimmicks.  This song is not as good as their one from 2010, however

Hungary: More half-hearted rock

Austria: positive – it’s in German, negative – everything else about this entry

Moldova: not as strong as his entry from last year, but it’s still rather fun.

Ireland: they should have stuck with fun and high energy, they’re voices are not strong enough to pull off this song, even in the last spot in the running order

 

Who’s Gonna Make it Through:

Iceland – strong song and is sure to get the juries’ votes – takes ballad advantage

Greece – essentially the same exact song that Greece sends every year

Romania – between two weaker entries

Cyprus – strong song that is bound to have a lovely performance

Denmark – catchy and quirky – takes mid-tempo advantage

Russia – gimmick from a popular country, who doesn’t like partying old people

Moldova – fun song that’s bound to have a high-energy performance

Ireland – gimmick that people still remember, don’t expect another top ten finish, though.

Hungary– risky choice, but may be able to woo enough people over

Switzerland – I couldn’t imagine this entry making it, but they seem to have a better chance than anyone else that’s left.

 

Semi-Final Two:

Serbia: By now, I think the whole Internet knows my fondness for Gospodin Joksimović

Macedonia: Not bad, not as good as Samo Ti, but not bad.

The Netherlands: She’s channeling her inner Lenny Kuhr.  Unfortunately, Lenny Kuhr had no business winning in 1969.

Malta: This is alright, but will need a good performance

Belarus: This is okay, a little meh, though

Portugal: Oh, André Babic, you predictable genius.  The composition is typical, but it’s still so good!

Ukraine: The Ukrainians were pissy about their entry again this year.  It’s definitely not a winner, but will probably be top ten

Bulgaria: back to their wheelhouse, techno-pop.  But will most likely be overshadowed by the Ukrainian entry

Slovenia: lucky to have fallen after two dance numbers, hopefully it will take advantage of its spot and not be swallowed up by it.

Croatia: another good Croatian entry

Sweden: Great song! I like it a lot

Georgia: I smell another entry pushing its strong base to the limit.  This may make it through, but it will be a close one.  Poor choice in my opinion

Turkey: Turkish people across Europe will vote two-fold after last year’s debacle

Estonia: Another ballad lucky enough to come after a slew of fast songs, take advantage of this Estonia!

Slovakia: Most definitely the strongest Slovakian entry to date

Norway: they say this is Eric Saade from Norway, and they’re right!

Bosnia and Herzegovina: Nice song, I think she needs a strong performance though, because it borders on forgettable

Lithuania: This is probably the weakest Donny Montell song I’ve heard (except for maybe Best Friends).  This would be lucky to get into the Final.

 

Who’s Gonna Make it Through:

Serbia – duh!

Belarus – I think it will be strong enough to make it through

Portugal – strong song from an amazing composer, it should be interesting seeing Babić go up against Joksimović’s composition

Slovenia – It follows two high-energy dance numbers, I imagine that will help it go from average to astounding

Croatia – I think this is the year Yugoslavia rises again in the Contest, so Croatia goes through

Sweden – of course, it’s Sweden!

Turkey – As I said, Turks around Europe would never let Turkey suffer the embarrassment of two straight years of being left behind in the semis

Estonia – one of the better ballads in this year’s Contest

Slovakia – this is the year, I can feel it.

Norway – cute boy with an average voice and strong a dance routine, methinks this will succeed

Bosnia and Herzegovina – Because I see no one else who could take the last spot (maybe Bulgaria)

 

Automatic Qualifiers:

United Kingdom: The weakest of the six, and it doesn’t help that it’s going first.  Sorry Mr. Humperdinck, nice try, though

France: French and English – I have high hopes for France, don’t let me down this time, again.  It has the added benefit of being one of the few mid-tempo songs

Italy: This is lovely and slightly addicting, a good combination in an ESC entry

Azerbaijan: AMAZING – definitely the best Azerbaijani entry to date

Spain: Strong singer with a strong performance.  Well done Spain!

Germany: Probably the second weakest of the bunch, but will do well because of its position and styling.

 

If my predictions hold true, then there will be ~12 up-tempos v. ~10 ballads, in which case the advantage would go to the two mid-tempos, France, Denmark, and Hungary.  I would put money on France’s chances of winning as it’s more mainstream than Denmark’s song and a better performer than Hungary.

 

Something I did not mention earlier, there’s a lot of darker and off-centre entries this year.  So, some the happier tunes have an advantage, I think.  Romania, Moldova, Greece, Belarus, and Russia fall into this category.  Even some of the weaker entries, like Latvia, The Netherlands, and Israel might over perform their anticipated positions due to their up-beatness.

 

Who will be the Winner:  As of right now, the smart money is on Azerbaijan to be the first to successfully defend the title in 33 years.  It’s a strong song, a country that has a very strong diaspora, and it will have the home field advantage.

 

The rest of the Top Ten:

France – catchy song with a hot performer who has a great voice

Denmark – catchy and kitschy

Germany – The Germans have found the key to success, at least for now

Italy – I think this will empower all the girls watching, particularly if she gives a strong performance

Iceland – Probably one of the strongest ballads competing this year, it will most likely split the jury vote with Estonia, but this seems like it will have more fan support.

Romania – fun song and a rather different ethnic flair for Eastern Europe, it’s bound to pull in the likes of Spain, Portugal, and France with its sound

Serbia – it Željko Joksimović, enough said, though, this is probably his weakest composition

Norway – because cute dancing boys will never get old

Cyprus – because cute energetic girls will never get old

Greece – it’s the same song Greece submits very year, so of course it will do well

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