Predictions!!!

Howdy Readers!  I realize that last time I wimped out; I didn’t give you all solid predictions.  Now that I can say that the Contest is later this month, I wanted to provide my updated predictions.  I also wanted to give you all a road map to the remaining pre-Contest posts.  It will start with the prediction post.  Next week, I will add my commentary from the Eurovision 2008 Contest, and the following week I will add my notes from the 2009 Contest.  I wanted to do this so you all would get an understanding of what I like and expect from the Contest; so you know what to expect from my live commentary on this year’s Contest.  The final pre-Contest post will be updated predictions for each of the semi-finals.  I will then have live commentary for each semi-final and an updated prediction for the Grand Final.

So, onwards to these predictions!

First Semi-Final

Qualifiers: Slovakia (it’s actually a favorite to win by many fans and bookies!), Belgium (the song has been generally well-received; it’s time for them to qualify out of the semis), Greece (because it’s Greece, and its a party song), Iceland (another well-received), Finland (Europe likes folk music), Estonia (I truly believe that this will be a dark horse entry-an entry that gets little attention before the Contest, but does really well, like ICE2009), Latvia (the jury will boost her score), Albania (another up-tempo song amidst ballads), Bosnia & Herzegovina (another one that will be boosted by the jury…and diaspora voting), Russia (because it’s Russia).

Going home: Moldova (they’re starting the show!), Serbia (the comments have been almost universally negative!), Poland (comments rate it as boring), Malta (critics say that her voice isn’t strong enough for the song), Portugal (see Poland), Macedonia (I haven’t found much of anything on this entry), Belarus (generally received as pleasant, but not great)

Second Semi-Final

Qualifiers: Armenia, Israel, Denmark, Azerbaijan, Croatia (these are five favorites, along with Germany and Slovakia), Sweden (also fairly popular), Ireland (c’mon, she’s a former winner!), Georgia (Georgian entries tend to be well-received), Romania (not necessarily popular, but it is doing surprisingly well in online polls), Turkey (because it’s Turkey)

Going home: Lithuania (too far out for many fans), Switzerland (because it’s Switzerland – though, like their last five entries, this will probably be a big fan favorite after the Contest), Ukraine (too much controversy this year), the Netherlands (even the Dutch hate this song), Slovenia (just not a lot of positive response), Bulgaria (most reviews = too boring), Cyprus (too many guys with guitars, and BiH and Belgium are getting a more press — could qualify at the expense of Georgia or Romania)

Grand Final

Finish with a respectable placing (Top 14) – Germany (it is already a favorite), Norway (nothing but positive comments), France (it’s vastly different than any other entry)

Finish with shame (Bottom Ten) – Spain (really bad draw position, poor reception from fans), United Kingdom (one of this year’s biggest stories is how most Britons hate this entry)

Top Five:

Denmark, Armenia, Germany, Israel, Croatia

There you go, my predictions, I am sure they will change as we get closer to the Contest, but here is where I stand now.  Comments?  Questions?  Concerns?

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4 responses

  1. phier

    yeah Slovakia could do really well but Moldova and Serbia should be in the final..

    What do you mean by contravesy for Ukraine? It is my favourite song and her voice is incredible.. Bulgaria is very strong aswell..

    your predictions are just waht the betting says, very boring

    Like

    May 15, 2010 at 12:04 PM

    • I agree, Moldova should be in the Final.

      Did you miss the whole month of March and the controversy in the Ukraine? They had selected Vasyl Lazarovych to perform I Love You, then, a week before the songs were due to the EBU, NTU (Ukraine’s national broadcaster – which had just come under new leadership) decided that Lazarovych was unfairly selected and that a new selection special would be held. This special was thrown together in a few days, and Alyosha came out on top with the song To Be Free. Unfortunately, this song had been released prior to October 2009 (breaking the rules) and so had the runner-up song. Due to this, the Ukraine missed the submission deadline. Instead of being disqualified, they were given an extension and submitted Sweet People a couple days after the draw for starting position. I wrote to blog posts about it, here’s the first: https://eurovisionobsession.wordpress.com/2010/03/24/finally-the-ukraine-has-selected/

      As far as my predictions being “boring,” I go based off of what I think will do well, not necessarily what I like best. But since this entry, I have updated predictions. I will also have new ones coming out next week and the day of each show.

      Like

      May 15, 2010 at 1:01 PM

  2. BewlyVomymott

    Just want to say what a great blog you got here!
    I’ve been around for quite a lot of time, but finally decided to show my appreciation of your work!

    Thumbs up, and keep it going!

    Cheers
    Christian, iwspo.net

    Like

    May 26, 2010 at 9:24 AM

    • Thank you! I’m glad that you are enjoying it.

      Like

      May 27, 2010 at 7:11 AM

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